The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Luckey: Anduril sells weapons only as directed by State Dept and DOD
“What it really is, is I will sell to the people that the U S state department and the U S DOD want me to like, if that, that, that, because they have information that I don't, they have intelligence that I do not. And I cannot second guess that and say, oh, yo…”
Luckey: Government buyers resist efficiency because high budgets preserve their power
“The people who are in charge of purchasing for government, they often don't benefit from saving money or reducing their manpower or any of this.
In many cases, the guy in charge of making the buying decision, his political power and earning power are directly …”
Gil: Anduril Expands Defense Market Cap Through 50% Margins
“The traditional defense tech companies are what are known as cost plus, which means if you have a million dollar drone, they charge five percent. So they can't make more than five percent margins. They make 50 can a drone. You're Anduril. You can sell 10 bette…”
Pompliano: Joining OpenAI or Anduril offers 2x to 5x upside, not 10x
“OpenAI and Anduril, I think, are both at this point where if you go and you join, like, you may be able to make a couple 100,000 dollars a year, and, like, there's probably some upside, but OpenAI at, like, eighty-five billion dollars, basically, you have to b…”
Luckey: Anduril only covers coach travel for employees, and I fly coach
“I don't fly private and I do fly coach. For me, it's a reasoned thing where we, with exceptions for long term, like long, long international travel, we only cover coach travel for our employees.”
Parr: Anduril will reach a $20B to $50B valuation within five years
“Can this company be worth 20, 40, fifty billion in five years? 100%. It definitely can. It definitely can.”
Companies like Anduril and Blue Forge are making factory work cool
“And what this company is doing is they are trying to make it look cool and they are totally succeeding. And you're seeing this a little bit with Andrel. You know, Andrel? Yeah. So, Palmer Luckey's defense business in Orange County, where it's cool, again, to w…”
Sam Parr: Palmer Luckey says what billionaires are too afraid to say
“He says what you want to say if you were a billionaire, but you'd be too afraid to say it.”
Luckey: Anduril won a $1B counter-drone contract with SOCOM
“We recently just won a billion dollar contract with SOCOM special operations command to do all of their counter drone work.”