Andrew Wilkinson highlights Bill Ackman's credit default swap trade during the early 2020 market crash while discussing Pershing Square Holdings.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Rolling Out Existing AI and Self-Driving Would Eliminate 20% of Jobs
“So if we just paused AI, we shut down all the AI labs and all we focused on was just rollout of what already exists. I think probably Between self-driving cars and AI agents, 20% of all current jobs are gone.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wilkinson: Software will commoditize as AI eliminates coding barriers
“And so my belief is basically that as more and more people don't need to learn how to code and can build software, software will become more and more commoditized. There'll be way more competition and it'll be a way harder world for software businesses.”
Insight
Wilkinson: Angel Investing Is Roulette, Not Poker
“I think of it as roulette. And I think like this period that we're talking about was about me learning how to play poker, right? Poker has way better odds than roulette. If you're good at poker, you can actually win. You've got, you know, a 60% odds. When you …”
Opinion
Wilkinson: True value creation by Chamath Palihapitiya won't be clear for decades
“Chamath, we won't know if Chamath has actually built value for another 10 or 20 years. And frankly, like his, it's all very like secret. Cause I think a lot of his stuff is private. So we really have no clue how much money he has, how much money he made what's…”
Opinion
Venture Capital Investing Is Totally Random and Functions Like Roulette
“I still think ventures totally random. I do it for fun off the side of my desk.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tech salary inflation will reverse as remote hiring shifts overseas
“I think that this high salary inflation is not here to stay. I think what's happened is all these companies down in San Francisco are going, oh, crazy. We can hire cheap people in Canada, but they're not yet going, oh, hey, we can hire people in India and the …”