Feb 12, 2024 · 55m · my-first-million
What Stock Would Warren Buffett Buy If He Started Over In 2024?
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this inaugural Stockapalooza episode, Sean Puri pitches combat sports conglomerate TKO Group Holdings while Sam Parr presents ultra-luxury automaker Ferrari, testing classic Warren Buffett value principles against high-margin luxury moat frameworks.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 99.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 4.3 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 1.8 The hosts pushing back 2.1
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 52:04 Shaan roasts Sam's presentation style
Shaan playfully mocks Sam's opening declaration that he would avoid talking about numbers, comparing it to an unprepared student theatrically tearing up blank notes.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 27:28 Sam challenges TKO's monopoly defense with antitrust lawsuitSam pushes back on Shaan's thesis by pointing out that TKO's low fighter compensation (14% vs 50% in major sports) forms the core of an active antitrust lawsuit that could destroy profit margins.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 36:50 Sam reveals Ferrari's staggering per-unit profitabilitySam educates Shaan with industry statistics, showing Ferrari generates over $100,000 profit per unit compared to Tesla's $6,700, requiring Ford to sell 900 cars to equal one Ferrari's profit.
The host holds their own ▶ 20:10 Sam demonstrates nuanced MMA and executive liability knowledgeSam demonstrates deep domain knowledge by listing specific controversies surrounding Dana White, Sean Strickland, and Vince McMahon to question institutional investor adoption.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean's Foundation: Warren Buffett's 5 Investing Principles | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Shaan lays out Warren Buffett's five pillars of investing as the groundwork for his stock pitch. Sam interjects with historical context about Buffett transitioning from cigar-butt value investing to buying quality brands after being influenced by Charlie Munger. | |
| Sponsor Break: HubSpot's Growth and Marketing Tools | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Following an ad read, Shaan details his bull case for TKO (UFC and WWE), highlighting its near-monopoly status, media rights upside, and low fighter revenue share. Sam mostly listens while asking clarifying questions about YouTube rankings and market valuations. | |
| Examining TKO's Headwinds: Fighter Pay, Controversies, and Monopolies | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | Sam aggressively challenges the TKO thesis by citing executive scandals, institutional investor hesitation, and the existential risk of antitrust lawsuits regarding the 14% fighter revenue split. Shaan counters that controversies have historically made the brand antifragile. | |
| Sam's Investment Philosophy: Luxury Brands and the Lindy Effect | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Sam introduces his investing thesis centered on luxury heritage, the Lindy effect, and elite margins, modeled after Bernard Arnault's LVMH playbook. He walks through why Aston Martin failed his filter before setting up his actual pick. | |
| Sam's Stock Pitch: Ferrari's Unmatched Margins and Exclusivity | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Sam delivers a deep dive into Ferrari, illustrating its $100k+ profit per vehicle, draconian buyer vetting, customer bans, and secondary market controls. Shaan follows along with curiosity, even browsing the merch store in real time. | |
| Evaluating Ferrari's Valuation Risks and Founder Lessons | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Sam addresses key risks for Ferrari, including its elevated 54x P/E multiple and European hybrid mandates, before summarizing Enzo Ferrari's missionary focus and ability to say no to mass-market dilution. | |
| Banter on Italian Heritage, Prestige, and the Lamborghini Rivalry | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | The hosts engage in lighthearted banter regarding Italian luxury culture, Sam's upbringing in an Italian neighborhood, and the historical tractor-feud origin of Lamborghini. | |
| Stockapalooza Conclusion and Final Verdict | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | Shaan critiques Sam's presentation for ignoring valuation fundamentals, teasing him for beginning a stock pitch by dismissing numbers. Sam defends Ferrari's 20% topline growth before ultimately conceding his vote to Shaan's TKO pitch. |
Statements from this episode (19)
Chamath pitched Amazon reaching a $3T valuation back in 2016
“I remember when Chamath went on stage in 2016 and he was like, there's a multi trillion dollar company hidden in plain sight. And he made a case for why Amazon was going to get to three trillion by 20, 25. This is back in 2015.”
UFC competitor Bellator sold for just $100M after failing
“Bellator was the most well-funded competitor to UFC. It was funded by Viacom. They put hundreds of millions of dollars into this thing. It failed. And they just sold it for, you know less than what they put, what they invested into it. They sold it for a hundr…”
UFC and WWE hold over 95% market share in their categories
“Basically these two brands have over 95% market share in their market. This is total monopoly. More than Google has in the search market.”
WWE is the 10th most popular channel on YouTube
“The 10th, the 10th most popular channel on all of YouTube is WWE.”
UFC fighters receive only 15% to 17% of overall revenue
“All the fighters are independent contractors. They don't even pay them salaries. There's no guaranteed salaries. Independent contractors who make about 15 to 17% of the overall revenue goes to the fighters. Way less than every other sport. No teams. No, no, no…”
TKO Group could double media rights revenues in upcoming streaming renewals
“And the media rights for both of these are coming up this year and next. And so they have a chance to renegotiate and basically double what they're getting paid for by all the streaming companies by Netflix and by Amazon and ESPN and all the companies that wan…”
UFC controversies boost fan loyalty but deter institutional investors
“I think it won't impact the business at all. I think it's actually going to make the business better because the people who are behind them are going to be harder behind them, and I think, but I do think it will scare institutional money and that's basically m…”
UFC has 39 million Instagram followers, outpacing the NFL
“The NFL, which is the biggest, most profitable sports league in the United States, biggest, most profitable league, has twenty nine million followers. The UFC has thirty nine million followers because they are better at social media and they're better at story…”
WWE secured a 10-year, $5B streaming deal with Netflix
“WWE just cut off a 10 year, five billion dollar deal with Netflix just for one of their shows, which is kind of insane. It's going to go from USA Network To Netflix.”
The fighter antitrust lawsuit is the biggest economic risk to UFC
“It could. It could. That is, I would put that as the number one risk to shift the economics of the business.”
Ferrari grew revenue 17% to $6.5B in 2023
“In 2023, the revenue grew 17% to about six and a half billion dollars. They're very profitable. Their net profit last year was 1.3 billion dollars.”
Ferrari generates more profit per vehicle than any other automaker
“Ferrari makes more profit per unit. For every unit they sell, they make more profit than any other car and maker in the business.”
Approximately 65% of new Ferrari sales go to existing owners
“So for every Ferrari sold, something like 65% is being sold to someone who already buy or who already owns a Ferrari and has bought one from a dealer, meaning their LTV is massive.”
Ferrari's 35% EBITDA margin is higher than any other car company
“So they make something like, I believe their EBITDA margin is 35%. So no car company has that much, that big of a margin.”
EU hybrid regulations will not severely harm Ferrari's business
“I don't think it's gonna kill Ferrari, because they're already making hybrids, and a large percentage of the cars, something like 25%, are already hybrids. So I think they're gonna be fine, but that is a risk.”
Ferrari is the seventh-largest automaker despite selling only 13,000 cars annually
“I didn't realize it was the seventh largest car company in the world only selling 10, 13,000 units.”
Lamborghini began building sports cars after Ferrari refused to sell him one
“Lamborghini was a tractor maker, and Ferrari wouldn't sell him a car, so he made his own.”
Ferrari's arrogant, exclusionary attitude makes it an effective luxury brand
“And so they've been assholes from day one, and that's why it's such a great brand.”
TKO Group has significantly higher investment upside than Ferrari
“Okay, so if I had to put my own money, if I had to put a 100,000 dollars, let's say, into either Ferrari or TKO, I think I would go Ferrari. I think I would go Ferrari, but I think TKO has significantly higher upside. Significantly.”