The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 500 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nocera: Comparing lockdown and non-lockdown country data shows no difference
“They don't work. If you look at countries that locked down versus countries that didn't lock down, you don't, you can't tell which is which. You absolutely can't.”
Wilson: Caregiver earnings rates disputed by FTC were based on real data
“There was another piece where they challenged that the rate that caregivers were making were, maybe not fully an accurate depiction of that rate. We don't know how they could have claimed that because that was, actual real data that we would get off our transa…”
Krishna: Foundation AI models will become commodities within one to three years
“I think foundation models are going to become commodities. By the way, not that far out. Is it a year? Is it two years? Is it three years? Commodities doesn't mean that they don't have value. Gold is a commodity. So is iron. So commodities means that there is …”
Berman: Silicon Valley Investors Actively Seek Revenge as a Founder Motivator
“One of the handful of things that investors are looking for as a motivator is revenge. It's a big one. People have got really something to prove and want to just go assassinate the competition.”
Webb: China will technologically leapfrog the US within ten years
“So what's gonna wind up happening is, 10 years from now, China's gonna leapfrog us. I'm sorry, but like, anybody can, like, I'm happy to argue with anybody all day long about this, but we are missing the structural components for success.”
Hoffman: An AI GP as good as an average doctor is months away
“We could construct in a small number of months a medical assistant that is as capable as kind of call it You know an average GP or better that could run for, you know, small number of dollars per hour.”
Bret Taylor argues AI hallucinations will help solve digital disinformation
“And if you want a contrarian take on this, I think it will help with the disinformation problem a bit. People don't assume everything coming out of these agents is a hundred percent accurate and they like verify it. And my hope is the combination of these AI t…”
Wang: Humans will always hold a reasoning advantage in long-duration thought
“The areas where humans will always have a meaningful sort of reasoning or intelligence advantage relative to models is long form thought long duration thought, thinking over long time horizons.”
Russell: Luminar can be a trillion-dollar company integrated into every car
“It's this kind of thing where, you know, you have this outcome of where it's, like, very, very clear in your head, like, how we're gonna execute on these programs, how, you know, we'll see Luminar in every car, how, you know, it can be a trillion dollar compan…”
Roy-Chowdhury predicts AI will ultimately be a net job creator
“First of all, I do think that AI will be a net job creator.”
Andrew Chen: Startups failing to reach a $1B valuation have failed
“I have a, an advisor, Andrew Chen. He's like, if you're not a billion dollar company, you failed.”
Shein copied Cassey Ho's skort twice despite a conversation with its president
“And so what's been so crazy is that they not only copied that skirt once, they did it twice after we had a conversation about it. I talked to the president of US Sheehan, like it was a whole thing.”
Farquhar: Daily office attendance does not correlate with employee connection
“And what we did is we correlated those answers with how frequently people come to an office and how frequently they do what we call intentional togetherness gathering. And we found that people just turning up to the office every day was not correlated.”
Gelsinger says Intel will extend Moore's law until exhausting the periodic table
“We're not gonna let Moore's Law die until the periodic table is exhausted, and we have a lot of elements yet to go.”
Lubetzky: Hamas Aims for Regional Caliphate Replacing Arab Governments
“The goal of Hamas is not to replace Israel with the Palestinian Authority. Their goal is an Islamic Caliphate all over the Middle East to replace Egypt and Saudi Arabia and Jordan and all other Arab countries with the most repressive of Islamic regimes.”
Lubetzky: Palestinian Staff Report Hamas Is Blocking Gaza Evacuation Routes
“We have staff in Gaza that are trying to escape Gaza, and we have ways to get them out, but Hamas has blocked all exits. They've bombed roads, they've blocked roads. This is from our Palestinian staff in Gaza that are telling us they're not able to get out bec…”
Hoffman: Within 10 years society will want exclusively autonomous vehicles
“Like, I actually think that within 10 years, we will strongly want a world in which it's only autonomous vehicles on the road and not human beings.”
Obama: Republican filibuster obstruction in 2009 was unprecedented in US history
“At the time, there was no precedent for the kind of obstruction that we had seen from the Republican Party. There was no precedent for the use of the filibuster to literally block everything.”
Daunt: AI will displace study guides but cannot write great literature
“Is AI gonna write, write the next great books?
I very, very much doubt it, but it will take categories of books out quite clearly.
Such as?
Home study guides, you know, you, that will, that's an easy thing.”
Raman: Software engineering and customer service jobs face AI displacement
“Some jobs that are going to get displaced, and they already are, software engineering, customer service.”
Hoffman: Consumers will rely on an AI agent as their front door
“There's a platform sense in which I think there will be, will have, people will have an agent, maybe a couple, but certainly an agent that's kind of their general front door.”
Hoffman: Consumer AI will be massive despite enterprise-heavy consensus
“With AI, people haven't realized the whole consumer revolution. That's going to come with AI. And I agree with you. And as we know, as we see in Silicon Valley, everyone's talking, well, well, okay, enterprise is where the money is. That was the same thing bac…”
Pincus: The metaverse will be huge, but not inside VR goggles
“I think that the metaverse is starting to happen and I think it's going to happen and it's going to be As big as Zuck thought, and it's just not going to happen inside of an immersive game goggle that is painful and hot to wear on your head, even if the form f…”
Wilson: Generative AI will eradicate Care.com's technical debt within one year
“There's the promise of that it'll eradicate this in short period and actually believe it will. I think we're going to work our way out of it over the next year.”
Wilson: Care.com agreed with FTC on difficult cancellations and began changes
“One of the three things that the FTC asserted was our site being a subscription or membership service was hard to cancel. Guess what? I agreed with them. And before they, that, that claim was even there, we already started to change it.”
Krishna: 30% of back-office headcount won't be needed within a few years
“It's not going to go down to zero. But I would not be surprised if about 30% of the total headcount in those areas is not needed within a few years.”
Krishna: Everyone in the tech industry is losing money on AI right now
“Tech may be the early, early beneficiary, but I will note everybody in tech right now is losing money in it.”
Krishna: Market will support only three or four foundation models globally
“So, and I don't think in a commodity world, there probably isn't space for a dozen foundation models. Is there space for three or four? Probably. But since there's a dozen being run after globally, it tells you that They're not all going to work out.”
Krishna: Anthropic's Mythos Found No New Vulnerabilities Beyond Existing Models
“Mythos didn't find anything that other models didn't and couldn't find.”
Deeter: Foundation models will become tech's new hyperscalers
“Our belief is that the foundation models are going to be the new hyperscalers.”
Deeter: Anthropic can capture the number one foundation model slot
“The better in Anthropic was that they would be one of those companies and that they had the chance to compete at the one slot, which we very much still think they do.”
Webb: Generative AI and programmable biology enable non-experts to create bioweapons
“It also means absolutely terrifying lethal bioweapons that can be produced by people that maybe wouldn't have had the tools before.”
Yuan: Could not find a single happy Skype or WebEx customer
“There were so many solutions out there. The market was extremely crowded. However, I did spend a lot of time on talking with those users. Do you like Skype? Do you like WebEx? I did not see a single happy customer who told me that Really like the existing solu…”
Masad: Autonomous background agents will require new programming UIs beyond chat
“I don't think we've invented the UI for how to mix and match these LLMs and how to program them. So as much as I am a big believer in natural language-based programming, I think at some point as agents get better and they're like working most of the time in th…”
Masad: AI coding will decentralize SaaS into niche local applications
“As much as I love Silicon Valley, we tend to flatten the world. We just like build one size fit all. And that, that means like, you know, SaaS software tends to have all these buttons and configuration just to fit every use case. But instead, we're going to ex…”
Masad: Vibe-coders will build the vast majority of software applications
“But if you believe in AI, as I do, and we're going to continue to make progress on AI agents, and all the labs, billions of dollars, perhaps trillions of dollars, are going towards optimizing code specifically, then we're going to get to a point where it's, ag…”
Estée Lauder canceled Bobbi Brown's contract, forcing her into a figurehead role
“Well, I didn't decide to leave. It was, you know, I was called into the office and thinking that I was going to, you know, have finally some candidates, because we were, we went to search to help me turn around this company and fix the company and all of that,…”
Pohlson: Omaze's UK subscription retention rivals Spotify and Netflix
“We put it in the category of a consumer subscription entertainment, you know, like a Spotify or a Netflix and the retention rates. Are at that level.”
Green: Chinese groups immediately hire workers laid off by USAID cuts
“The folks who have been laid off as a result of the USAID cuts, and I don't mean folks in the United States, I mean folks globally, they're being hired immediately, and they're being hired by Chinese aid organizations because that's, because China still does u…”
Eidelman: PE capital makes buying practices unattainable for associate vets
“Now the cost of doing that because of so much private equity money that's come in is unattainable for a veterinarian to buy their boss's practice.”
Google offered $100 million more than Salesforce to acquire Buddy Media
“We had, I don't, I've never told this story publicly, but we had a term sheet from Google There was a hundred million dollars more than Salesforce.”
Digital health will not consolidate into a single platform, predicts Tom Hale
“I think this idea that it's not going to be one system for everybody. And then maybe that's not scalable, but I think the thing is that it might be different solutions for each person. The person who is managing chronic fatigue syndrome or long COVID, very dif…”
Hasbro CEO: D&D Beyond reaches 80% of active tabletop RPG players
“But when you think about, like, the reach of 19 to twenty million people in the tabletop gaming hobby, you know, we basically reach 80% of everyone who plays a tabletop RPG actively.”
Webb: Singapore could become a net chicken exporter using cultured meat
“Singapore could become a net exporter of chicken to Malaysia, to other places around Southeast Asia.”
Case: The US will avoid Europe's mistake of over-regulating AI
“I think that we will not make the mistake I believe Europe is making, which Europe often makes, of over-regulating trying to make, be so careful about bad things happening, you don't allow the good things to happen, and we need to figure out a way to, you know…”
Galloway: AI won't lower healthcare costs, but will save patients time
“I don't think AI is going to reduce healthcare costs. I think what it's going to do is give people back time, which I think is probably even more valuable.”
El Kaliouby: The next trillion-dollar company will be AI-first and is being born now
“The next trillion dollar company is going to be AI first, and it's being born now.”
Bret Taylor predicts AI agents will rival websites in corporate importance
“Every company will want their own agent, and they'll spend as much care and attention on their AI agent as they do building their website, as they do building their mobile app. This is going to be one of the main digital artifacts as a business that you make.”