The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,106 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 36 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kant: AI models will equal top human knowledge workers within 36 months
“I think we have a hard time holding the point of view that models will reach the same level of intelligence and capabilities that the world's most capable people in every field have. And when you take a step back, and don't take the next 12 month view, but jus…”
Humanoid robotics will mirror self-driving car long-tail struggles
“My personal bet is I think it's gonna be, the humanoid space is gonna look much more like self-driving, where we have some very good isolated demos, but the long tail will kill you. And so we're gonna go through many false starts, and I think this is just the …”
Top AI serving companies achieve 70% to 90% gross margins
“There are companies here that are making very, very good margins on serving their AI systems, like, 7080, sometimes 90%, depending on the modality and so, like with everything, the average number sucks but, like, when you look at the best companies, it's reall…”
Meta raises tens of billions in off-balance-sheet debt for data centers
“You have this, sort of, offloading of debt from big companies, for example, Meta, that raises tens of billions of dollars to fuel its data center ambitions, but that doesn't sit on Meta's balance sheet.”
Major tech companies abandon green commitments to secure AI power
“Well, a year or two ago, big companies did make commitments to be green as of, you know, as of, you know, as soon as they started inking deals with you know, nuclear companies and, Various energy providers for data centers, all those commitments basically got,…”
Anthropic agreed to a $1.5 billion training data copyright settlement
“And then there was a biggest settlement that happened in the last few months with Anthropic that agreed to pay out one and a half billion.”
Google Search survives because ChatGPT relies heavily on referencing it
“People say, oh, Google search is dead. I think that's like probably completely wrong because ChatGPT references Google a ton.”
Data center NIMBYism will feature prominently in 2026 political campaigns
“We predicted this kind of nimbyism, not, not in your backyard will kind of take precedence in in major political campaigns in 20, 26.”
Some countries will abandon AI sovereignty to declare AI neutrality
“Some countries will basically abandon their efforts to achieve AI sovereignty and declare AI neutrality.”
AI autonomous task duration doubles every three to four months
“We are seeing this very consistent improvement over many, many years where every say like, you know, three, four months is able to like do a task that is twice as long as before completely on its own.”
Schrittwieser: Current AI paradigm likely to achieve human-level performance in productivity tasks
“I think if you're thinking of, oh, we want some kind of system that can perform at roughly human level in basically all tasks that we care about. Productivity wise. Then I think, yeah, it's extremely likely that the current approach, pre-training RL, you know,…”
Tworek: Coding agents are the first successful agentic AI products
“Like, coding agents are at the moment the first, like, pretty successful agentic products built on top of AI.”
Tworek: OpenAI's o1 release caught US AI labs unprepared for RL
“As far as I know, like our O-one release mostly caught a lot of us labs by surprise. They didn't have like similarly advanced RL research program to my knowledge, basically no one.”
Tworek: Pre-training and RL are necessary for AGI, but not sufficient
“I generally think something that we are doing, like, pre-training today is necessary. I think something that, like, we are doing RL today is necessary, and there will surely be a few things more, and like, we have a lot of, Very ambitious research programs on …”
Douglas predicts DeepMind will lead the world in AI science discoveries
“DeepMind, if you wanted to solve science, is the best place in the world. Like, I think that DeepMind will directly contribute to more scientific discoveries from AI than anything else, right?”
Douglas: An Anthropic AI agent operated autonomously for 30 hours building apps
“We asked it to build something that looks roughly like a chat app, you know, something like Slack or, you know. And it was, it, the model just worked for 30 hours. Like, it was just spinning there on a computer for 30 hours, and came out with a really good wor…”
Douglas: AI autonomous task execution time horizons double every six months
“And so I think it's like every couple of months, the time horizon that the AIs are capable of doing is doubling or something, something crazy. Maybe, maybe every six months the time horizon doubles”
Douglas: AI application development will see another massive leap next year
“Over the next six months, over the next year, expect dramatic progress here. And like look at where we are now versus where we were a year ago. And the difference is I expect the same jump basically.”
Douglas: AI coding interventions stem from taste, not raw programming capability
“Right now you need to intervene quite frequently, but it's usually on questions of taste rather than it is questions of, like, raw programming ability.”
Douglas: AI beating GDP benchmarks won't immediately alter the broader economy
“We'll probably reach like better than human on the GDP eval, and it won't change anything economically because It'll be all the connective tissue, and all the, like, you know, the context, and actually, like, the task won't be representative.”
Douglas: Individuals will manage 24/7 AI agent teams within two years
“If coding agents progress in the way I've been saying, in a year or two, you'll be able to manage a team, basically, that works 24 seven for you doing work.”
Douglas: Robotic locomotion is essentially solved using basic reinforcement learning
“Locomotion's kind of solved, to be honest, with basic RL.”
Crespo: Microsoft Excel will still be actively used in ten years
“I have a prediction that Excel will still be here in five years. And there is a good reason. You can keep that. In five years, Excel will still be there. And in 10 years, Excel will still be there.”
Valenzuela: Unified AI models will render specialized video task models completely obsolete
“Our thesis has always been that, like, you don't, that's not gonna matter. Like, it's just, none of those things will matter the moment you have a model that can learn how to do all of those things at once.”
Valenzuela: Full-stack AI companies will eventually reach 80% to 90% SaaS margins
“I think eventually you'll get to, like, best in SAS margins, like, as 80, 90% over time.”
Cherny: AI models won't need rigid sub-agent roles in 6-12 months
“But I think that the models six or 12 months from now, they probably won't need this anymore because they're all going to be pretty good and you won't have to define very rigidly what each one's responsibilities are anymore.”
Cherny: Claude Code does not use RAG for codebase memory
“And so quad code actually doesn't use this technique called rag. Instead, what it does is it just searches files the same way that a human would.”
Boris Cherny: Programming will shift from text manipulation to working with agents
“I think one way it will definitely play out is it's going to change programming where programming is no longer direct text manipulation, but it's more working with agents to get the work done.”
Laskin: AI models will interact with enterprise software primarily via APIs
“And so the way these language models are going to interact with any piece of software, not just Software engineering software, like Salesforce and other CRMs and creative tools and so forth. The majority of those interactions are going to be through function c…”
Laskin: Advanced AI without comprehension are 'L9 engineers with amnesia'
“What we're going to get to if we don't solve the comprehension piece is basically L-nine engineers with amnesia.”
Laskin: Principal-level AI engineers are a couple of years away
“And that the combination of this you know, L-Nine with Amnesia and the L-Nine's context core will together, you know, that will become the principal level engineer, the AI engineer. And so I actually think that that's not too far away. That's I would say in, y…”
Laskin: Reflection AI regularly beats OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind for talent
“We win over candidates over OpenAI and Anthropic Meta, DeepMind regularly.”
Laskin: Reflection AI will ship research requiring 100k GPU equivalence in 2025
“Later this year we'll be shipping things that I don't think anyone ever thought a startup could do. Like, I think that we're going to be shipping some things on the research side that I think everyone thinks you need to be a giant lab with a 100,000 GPUs to do…”
Merchant APIs will require canonical intent endpoints for autonomous AI agents
“And so every merchant API is probably going to need one canonical kind of intent endpoint that accepts those structured desires instead of sort of this UI click world that we live in today.”
Merchants must expose machine-readable product schemas to sell through AI agents
“And so I think early adopters who want to sell through agentic channels are going to need to expose kind of an open product schema, like the SKU and the inventory and the price and the constraints and, you know, maybe even the wedge that you're willing to give…”
AI agents will shrink e-commerce latency budgets to a few hundred milliseconds
“I think latency budgets are gonna shrink to machine time. We talked about latency budgets in the context of the charge path, but, like, you know, people will wait three seconds for a spinner. I think an agent's just gonna retry somewhere else after a couple hu…”
Model Context Protocol is becoming the default standard for LLM integration
“I mean, it's pretty clear that MCP is becoming the default way that any single service Stripe or GitHub or Notion talks to an LLM.”
AI startups reach $30M ARR three times faster than fast-growing SaaS startups
“Those that already hit thirty million in annualized revenue got there in about a year and a half. For comparison, you know, many of us were around five years ago, like the fastest growing SaaS startups on Stripe took, you know, five and a half years to hit tha…”
Stockholm-based AI startup Lovable reached $50 million ARR in six months
“European breakouts lovable out of Stockholm hit fifty million ARR in six months and is now for sure the fastest growing startup in Europe.”
AI software pricing will shift to outcome-based models within five years
“I think it's where actually like the market equilibrium, like where clearing will actually happen, you know, two, three, five years from now is experimenting with new pricing models, like outcome based pricing and actually increasingly using outcome based pric…”
Walsher: Cursor announced reaching $500M in ARR
“Cursor, maybe three weeks ago, announced they're at five hundred million dollars of ARR.”
Walsher: Computer science graduates face top-tier college unemployment rates
“Computer science grads are actually among the top five or six majors graduating from college right now with the highest unemployment rate.”
Rauch: Agentic engineering will be limited to professional developers until AGI
“Agentic engineering, I think for the foreseeable future, until we really, you know, reach SSI, or Safe Super Intelligence, or whatever you want to call it, or AGI, it'll still, it's going to be a more reduced number of software professionals.”
Rauch predicts a fully generative internet with fluid interfaces within 10 years
“So I think what's going to happen over the next 10 years is that people are going to start creating cross pollinations between products and integrations between products and novel interfaces to products that weren't, I mean, they were possible before, but just…”
Rauch: MCP will replace human business development with agent-to-agent meetings
“You know, in many ways, I think MCB will be the new business development, but it's going to be at a hundred times the speed. It's not going to be people meeting and it's going to be agents meeting.”
Rauch: AI cloud will be self-healing and autonomous with humans in loop
“We believe that the AI cloud will be self healing as well as completely autonomous from an infrastructure point of view. And we believe that agents and humans will collaborate.”