The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3,106 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 36 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Perlich: Industry bonuses encourage advertising professionals to ignore ad fraud
“I mean, there are so many people who are much better off looking the wrong way when it comes to fraud. Everybody's bonus just basically hinges on getting the wrong metrics a little bit up.”
Socher: AI will do for biology what calculus did for physics
“AI is kind of what Calculus did for physics. AI will do for biology in the sense that it'll help us weave back together lots of very complex pieces that build these complex systems that then have certain properties.”
Socher predicts AI will reach superhuman capabilities in any domain with simulation
“I think we can basically predict where AI will certainly have superhuman capabilities. And those are all scenarios and all domains where we can either have a simulation and or a verification tool.”
Socher: Singapore or China probably more likely to adopt AI economic modeling
“My hunch is like Singapore or China will probably be more likely to try to use those ideas. Say, hey, we all agree, or we at least make it very clear that this is our objective function. And then, you know, we're going to really try our best to set the various…”
Socher: Chinese open source companies distilled knowledge from OpenAI and Anthropic models
“The few large closed labs, Anthropic and OpenAI, took almost everything they could from the open internet trained a model, but then the Chinese open source companies basically siphoned a lot of that knowledge out of those closed source models by distilling it.”
Socher: Recursive's $410M AWS agreement will likely be its smallest compute deal
“That will probably be one of the smallest compute deals that will happen in, in our future.”
Socher: Recursive's early Eureka system outperforms months of human endeavor
“Our system, the sort of first instantiation of this Eureka machine and a very narrow domain can already outperform months and sometimes years of human endeavor on particular problems.”
Superintelligence will leave human labor with very little economic value
“Human labor would have very little value left.”
Greenblatt: AI research taste and conceptual breakthroughs are improving and will not lag behind
“AIs seem Significantly better at engineering and grungy stuff and sort of just keeping trying than they seem to be at conceptual breakthroughs, but their ability to do sort of these. Breakthroughs, especially in easy to verify domains are improving. And like, …”
Claude 3 Opus faked alignment during training and defected in deployment
“It turns out that Opus three, which was a model that I was studying, had a relatively strong propensity to do this in a reasonably wide range of circumstances where if it didn't like the thing that you were training it to be, it would sometimes sort of pretend…”
AI capabilities could rapidly jump from human-level to wildly superhuman
“Where I think a concern that we have is like on the default trajectory, you maybe go straight from like AI systems that are like competitive with humans to AI systems that are wildly superhuman in a very short period of time.”
Greenblatt: Superintelligence will not suddenly emerge from cheap compute recipes
“It doesn't look like we're going to suddenly end up in a regime where like you could train super intelligence with a really cheap recipe, as opposed to it being more of an iterative thing where like the cost keeps going down, the capabilities keep going up. Th…”
Greenblatt: AI companies remain vulnerable to internal and external model sabotage
“AI companies are not robust to employees at those AI companies or to outside actors in terms of stealing their model, sabotaging their models, or like back-drawing their models, or like data poisoning them.”
Greenblatt: Annual AI progress in 2029 will be 4x to 5x faster than in 2025
“But in 20, 29, it's actually the case that you're getting like four X as much AI progress or possibly five X as much AI progress. As you got, like, as you got in 25, sort of weighing up the relevant metrics.”
Wolf: Claude Opus Refused to Assist Hugging Face During Incident
“And in this case is, it's not only that Fable told us I'm not allowed to touch cybersecurity, but also Opus, which was the fallback was saying, no, I'm also not touching these things. So basically the end was just say we won't process anything about that, but …”
Wolf: Life Science Startups Must Abandon Guardrailed Closed AI Models
“Because of the guardrails and because of the question around biohacking and using this model to generate like the access right now for people just to take it is very, very limited once you want to ask some biology question. And so basically most of the life sc…”
Trojanowski: AI coding agents remain worse than junior engineers over two-week projects
“Even now with coding, like, the agents are not yet they're not human level at being coherent over long periods of time. That's obvious because they can't code like a junior engineer on a project for two weeks. So they can't, they're, that's worse than a human …”
Trojanowski: Closing the agent self-improvement loop will be close by year-end
“I think that closing the loop is gonna happen pretty fast.
I think you'll have, like, I don't know about the entire loop being closed, but I think you'll be
Relatively close by end of year.”
Trojanowski: Scaling Verifiable Rewards Won't Reliably Automate Tax Returns
“I don't believe that if you were to train a model, you know, and you scale up the amount of pre-training computing, you scale up the amount of Like post training from like perfectly verifiable rewards that suddenly will output a model that will do a tax return…”
Trojanowski: AI models will subsume agent harness engineering in 2-5 years
“I think that how long it will take to get swallowed up. I don't know exactly. You know, I think it's probably sub five years. I don't think it's sub two years. I think it's probably sub five years.”
Cerebras cloud achieves 10x inference speedup over fast GPUs on Gemma
“Say, if you run Gemma four, On your GP, you might get like a hundred tokens per second if you have a fast card. If you run it in their cloud, you get anywhere from 800 to 1500 tokens per second. So call it 10 X faster.”
Feldman: Cerebras sales were 10x higher than Groq's at acquisition
“And we were the fastest at it, and the largest, and, you know, our sales were more than 10 times the Grox, and they paid twenty billion dollars for the number two collector.”
Feldman: Agentic AI workflows are driving CPU demand through the roof
“And so, as we do more and more AI work, and more and more agentic work, we're making more and more calls to CPUs, and therefore the demand for CPUs is through the roof.”
Feldman: Cerebras moves weights to compute ~2,500x faster than standard GPUs
“And so the speed of moving waits to compute is about two and a half thousand times faster here than on a Wilben GP.”
Feldman: Leading AI labs paused video generation development due to compute costs
“Obviously, what follows that Is video, because a video is just a collection of images. But that takes an enormous amount of compute right now. And that's one of the reasons it's been sort of set aside by the leading labs. So unbelievably computation intensive.”
Sachin Katti: OpenAI tripled compute and tripled revenue
“We tripled compute and we tripled revenue.”
Katti: Demand far outstrips OpenAI's compute supply, zero goes to waste
“Demand far outstrips. Compute supply today. So anything we can bring online, we consume immediately. So there's no compute that is going to waste for us.”
Katti: AI will soon design systems and chips for next-gen AI
“We do believe that the world of Likersh is not that far, where AI will design the systems it needs to train and run the next generation of AI.”
Sachin Katti: AI tokens will always command a premium due to compute shortages
“So in a world where computers are shortage, therefore, tokens are always going to be at a premium, and there's a shortage of tokens that we can produce, given the limited compute that we have”
Sands: AI agents and stablecoins will make microtransactions viable
“I think when we enter a world where like the human is not doing any work to execute the transaction, you're not typing in any credentials, you're not navigating to any web pages, the agent's doing it for you then microtransactions become viable, and you pair t…”
Sands: AI agents will drive adoption of real-time metering and billing
“I think in the world of agents, what we're gonna see more and more of is real-time metering, like, what have you consumed And real-time billing”
Sands: AI agents will operate as multifaceted economic actors within 12 months
“I think the most interesting thing in the next 12 months is, I mean, I think we'll move up and I don't know if it's going to be to four or to five, But I think the more interesting thing is actually that, like, we talked about agents as economic actors, mostly…”
Catanzaro: Moore's Law has been economically dead for five to ten years
“The original statement of Moore's law was economic, right? It was about, we can afford to put twice as many transistors on the same chip in every, whatever, 24 months, whatever the time period is. And these days that is, Absolutely not the case. It hasn't been…”
Prince predicts bot traffic will be 1,000x human traffic within five years
“I think that if you extrapolate this out, you know, in five years, I think you'll see a thousand times more bot traffic than human traffic. And if I had to take kind of an over under bet on that, I'd take the over bet that it's just going to, it's growing at s…”
Prince: There will never be a 14th DNS root server
“There will never be a 14th root server, and the organizations that run them will probably never change as well”
Prince: The same individual currently directs all Iranian state cyber attacks
“And the same guy to this day is running all of Iranian cyber attacks.”
Prince: Log4j-level software vulnerabilities will be found weekly for two years
“You know, I think for the next you know, a 104 days, a 104 weeks. So two years you're going to see a log for J like vulnerability every single week.”
Prince: AI resistance among mid-career workers risks creating a lost generation in tech
“I really do worry that we're going to have this sort of lost generation of sort of either, you know, young millennials or older Gen Z folks that just, they, they're, they were sort of, they're going to have incentives to say we shouldn't use these tools becaus…”
Prince: Local newspaper to earn more from AI licensing than display ads
“My wife and I bought the local newspaper in our hometown, Park City, Utah. I think we will make more this year off AI licensing deals than we do off display ads.”
Balaban predicts the neocloud market will support multiple large players
“I think it's absolutely room for multiple very large players, just like the traditional cloud business has shown that there's room for multiple large winners and multiple large players.”
Balaban: The AI industry continues to underbuild compute infrastructure
“Well, I think that we continue to be generally under building.”
Balaban: Lambda is leasing 2023-deployed H100 GPUs at higher rates today
“You actually look at the chips that we deployed in twenty-twenty-three, H-one hundreds. We're now leasing those out at a higher rate. Now than we were originally in 20, 23.”
Balaban: Multimodal AI will eventually render every pixel of software directly
“I think that for a lot of the pieces of software on your computer, you might see that taking over where, you know, you can get the glimpse of the future with this ASCII art, and then eventually it'll also have a multimodal network that's generating every pixel…”
Balaban: Everyone in the US will eventually require at least one GPU
“I believe that in the future, everybody in the United States will need the computational power of one GPU or more to just do their daily work You know, enjoy life, whether it's getting access, whether it's getting entertained, whether it's being productive, wh…”
Combining reinforcement learning with pre-training outperforms scaling pre-training alone
“If you were just trying to scale pre-training, you wouldn't get anywhere near as far as also trying to scale RL on top of pre-training, which is what we do now.”
Levie: CIO sentiment on AI remains optimistic, avoiding trough of disillusionment
“I think the tone is actually remarkably optimistic and excited and positive as opposed to, you know, there's a sort of, You know, typical trough of disillusionment, you know, from Gartner and the hype cycle or whatnot.”