The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 35 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mike Palmer: Microsoft Fabric is a marketing rebrand of legacy software
“And I'm directly accusing Microsoft here. I think their application products are not good in their cloud products. I think fabric is a run it back strategy on office through 65, where they just provide a marketing name to some longstanding old products.”
Cloud giants will turn backend open-source software into a corner case
“So I just think Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are, like, absolutely, like, moving far, far away from the pack in terms of their ability to create infrastructure software. So I feel like from now on it's like their game to write our databases and our message qu…”
Big tech companies will lose massive amounts of money on ML APIs
“I do not think that these numbers are going to be good for these machine learning APIs. And I think those bigger companies are going to lose a massive amount of money over the next several years.”
Antitrust locks Big Tech out of M&A, empowering Snowflake and Databricks
“But you look at like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, all are under an attack trust and basically impossible for them to acquire. So there's, you don't really have the big chip stacks at the table anymore, which means if you're an acquirer like Snowflake o…”
Turck says horizontal AI startups will struggle against reactive tech incumbents
“It seems that for stuff that's very horizontal startups are going to have a harder time building long lasting businesses because in this Cycle. They are facing a very different type of incumbents compared to prior platform shifts where you know, this time you'…”
Turck: Google invented the Transformer but is playing catch-up
“So in GPT, which stands for generative pre-trained transformers, the T is a transformer architecture that was actually Developed at Google, and the irony is that Google is playing catch-up to Microsoft and OpenAI right now because OpenAI accelerated the develo…”
Cloud incumbents struggle against open-source startups under $100M revenue
“Listen, if you're in the first hundred million dollars Because of revenue, and you're the innovator, and you own the code, I think it's incredibly difficult for these larger incumbents, you know, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft to compete against with you. They …”
Evans: Microsoft Bing will never catch up with Google in search
“Doesn't matter how much money and how hard Microsoft works, Bing will never catch up with Google.”
Patel: Microsoft Nebius NJ data center didn't drive power price hikes
“That data center has nothing to do with power prices going up. It's super storm standee, like five years ago, knocking or whatever, how many years ago, knocking down the state's electrical infrastructure and then the, then improving all these improvements. And…”
Dohmke: AI was part of Microsoft's 2018 GitHub acquisition memo
“One additional thing was in fact AI and saying, we believe there's a future that where we can train AI models on the graph is I think what we called it of all the source code that is stored on, on GitHub, but also on the relationships between the developers, y…”
Dohmke: Copilot AI competitors run model inference on Azure AI Foundry
“Many of these AI code generation companies that compete with GitHub Copilot are running their inference on Azure AI Foundry.”
Big tech and AI companies are driving a U.S. nuclear revival
“But yeah, in 24, it turns out that big tech companies and AI companies are the ones driving this, Revival of nuclear power with, you know, Microsoft entering into a deal with Constellation to revive Three Mile Island, which was the site of the last nuclear acc…”
Turck says Inflection AI would not have pivoted if commercial performance was strong
“If they had something unbelievable going on, they would probably not have made that decision.”
Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and OpenAI used Reddit data for AI models
“Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and OpenAI all used Reddit's data to train their conversational AI models.”
Tuchen: Microsoft is by far the easiest cloud vendor to partner with
“They're by far the easiest cloud vendor to partner with right now.”
Stripe partners with Microsoft and OpenAI for Copilot commerce
“Microsoft and open AI, we're doing something similar with them, like helping businesses make their products discoverable inside copilot and chat GPT.”
Microsoft employees initially viewed Visual Studio Code as a toy
“And when Visual Studio Code first was released inside the company, there was a feeling that this is a toy. This is not for real developers, because the real developers, they need Visual Studio, which is why Visual Studio Code is such a complicated long name, b…”
Patel: AI model performance is a lagging indicator of prior hardware CapEx
“Ultimately the capex that Microsoft spent in 2024 for OpenAI is what results in 2025 for OpenAI or CoreWeaver or whoever is what results in their models being so good this year. Same with Anthropic and Amazon Google and their models now being so good now is th…”
A large portion of CoreWeave's revenue comes directly from Microsoft
“A lot of CoreWeave's revenue also comes from Microsoft on the way back.”
Evans: Big Tech data center spending will exceed $300B this year
“Google, Meta AWS, not Amazon overall, AWS only, and Microsoft spent about two hundred twenty billion dollars building data centers last year, and will spend about 300, maybe over 300 this year, depending on where their numbers come out.”
Microsoft and NVIDIA are massive Hugging Face enterprise customers
“When you think about Microsoft, when you think about NVIDIA all, all these companies are massive customers of ours.”
Amazon spiked cloud CapEx 18 months before Google and Microsoft
“Amazon Spiked almost 18 months before Google and Microsoft did, so they must have seen some of these inference workloads coming.”
Microsoft and ServiceNow report 50-75% developer productivity gains from AI
“So Microsoft and ServiceNow have said there's 50 to 75% increase in developer productivity.”
Thomas Reardon created Internet Explorer in 1994 and led it through IE4
“I started up Internet Explorer in 94 and then worked on IE all the way through IE four, when we finally sort of won the browser war.”
Big tech uses AI and machine learning as its next feature war
“And three, and this is a belief of me that could be wrong, is that actually the big tech firms, Amazon, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and all the others, they're using AI and machine learning as their next feature war.”
LeCun: Apple, Android, and Microsoft mobile speech recognition use deep learning
“So probably many of you know that most You know, mobile speech recognition application search and stuff like that uses deep learning for the last two years. This is both for, you know, Apple, Android, Microsoft. All of those applications use deep learning for …”
Katti: OpenAI sources compute from all major cloud hyperscalers
“We have compute from, effectively, many sources. So, Microsoft, obviously, is a big partner, important partner. We also have compute, as we have announced, from AWS, Ion Google. So, we have compute from all of the hyperscalers, effectively.”
Patel: CoreWeave secured GPU debt without backstops using Microsoft contracts
“In the case of core wave, they were actually able to no backstop, right? They were able to just say, Hey, look, here's our Microsoft contract for this many GPUs.”
Dohmke: GitHub revenue is included in Microsoft's Azure quarterly KPI
“From a business perspective, that meant the GitHub revenue became part of the Azure KPI that is reported, you know, in, in earnings calls every quarter from Microsoft.”
Dohmke: Visual Studio was a billion-dollar business in 2018
“Back, back in 2018 being Visual Studio, you know, in itself the IDE, you know, the old school IDE in itself, a billion dollar business”
Dohmke: Microsoft has about 70,000 employees in R&D
“I think Microsoft all up has about 70,000 people in research and development. Not all of them are engineers, there's some product managers and designers, but the majority are writing code.”
Microsoft, Google, and IBM build computational services on Jupyter
“Many, many companies are actually building on top of this platform, ah, to build out, ah, computational services, including Microsoft, Google, IBM, Continuum analytics and more.”
Catanzaro: NVIDIA's first major AI model was built jointly with Microsoft
“Our first big model that we trained, we did with Microsoft, right? It was a joint effort where NVIDIA and Microsoft researchers worked side by side to build that.”