The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Wolf: AI Model Used Fake GitHub Accounts to Social Engineer Maintainers
“Basically, the model was tasked to solve this attack, this, like, to attack and to penetrate this subnetwork, and what it decided to do, it decided to get one of the maintainer of a library that could be used To operate this activity directory to merge like ma…”
Thomas Wolf Aug 6, 2026 ▶ 17:01 “OpenAI’s Model Hacked Us” - Hugging Face’s Thomas Wolf
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: Two percent of global GitHub commits are generated by Claude Code
“But two percent of GitHub commits today are cloud code.”
Dylan Patel Feb 5, 2026 ▶ 51:53 Dylan Patel: NVIDIA's New Moat & Why China is "Semiconductor Pilled”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Model Context Protocol is becoming the default standard for LLM integration
“I mean, it's pretty clear that MCP is becoming the default way that any single service Stripe or GitHub or Notion talks to an LLM.”
Emily Glassberg Sands Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 59:05 The Rise of Agentic Commerce — Emily Glassberg Sands (Stripe)
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: No single AI model will ever dominate software development
“There is never going to be one single model that rules them all, but the world of software development is just way too broad for this.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 23:29 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Insight
High GitHub star counts for AI projects mostly reflect unmonetizable hobbyist interest
“There are definitely some that have, you know, tens of thousands of stars on GitHub. But if you look at the use, where those stars are coming from, it's mostly hobbyists, and I'm sure you can monetize hobbyists and sort of grow from there. But I think it is li…”
Nancy Xu Oct 18, 2023 ▶ 42:07 Moonhub’s Nancy Xu Unveils the AI Recruiter That’s Beating LinkedIn
Disclosure
Dohmke: AI was part of Microsoft's 2018 GitHub acquisition memo
“One additional thing was in fact AI and saying, we believe there's a future that where we can train AI models on the graph is I think what we called it of all the source code that is stored on, on GitHub, but also on the relationships between the developers, y…”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 11:38 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: OpenAI's Codex solved over 90% of GitHub interview coding exercises
“I think the model was able, when, with multiple attempts to solve more than 90% of these coding exercises, of these two and 30 coding exercises.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 13:10 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Insight
Big data analytics sharing should mirror GitHub's clone and fork model
“When I think of sharing, I think of the GitHub model, right, where it's not, here's your final published product, but here is, clone it, fork it, and this is how I derive at those insights, so other people can learn from those insights, and that's really impor…”
Shant Hovsepian Dec 17, 2015 ▶ 11:11 10 Commandments for BI in Big Data, Shant Hovsepian, Arcadia Data (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub passed $2 billion in ARR in July 2024
“We announced last July so almost a year ago that GitHub had passed two billion in, in annual revenue run rate ARR.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 8:02 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Disclosure
Dohmke: GitHub does not allow enterprise model fine-tuning today
“We do not today.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 25:41 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dohmke: GitHub grew from $200M ARR in 2017 to $2B in 2024
“You can go back in time, 2017, a year before the deal, then GitHub leadership team had announced two hundred million. In AR. So those are not exactly snapping to the timing of the deal, but you get an idea between 2017 and 20 24 revenue when 10 X, right?”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 8:11 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Guy Podjarny: GitHub is not open-source but gets its halo
“GitHub is not an open source company. It's but it benefits from the halo of open source.”
Guy Podjarny Feb 17, 2021 ▶ 23:53 Fireside Chat: Guy Podjarny (Founder & President, Snyk) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Disclosure
CockroachDB publishes all source code openly without a closed enterprise edition
“We don't have a, an enterprise edition that's closed source. All of our source code is, is available. It's all in the same GitHub repo.”
Spencer Kimball Oct 17, 2018 ▶ 18:47 Ultra-Resilient SQL for Global Business // Spencer Kimball, Cockroach (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Supported
Dohmke: GitHub revenue is included in Microsoft's Azure quarterly KPI
“From a business perspective, that meant the GitHub revenue became part of the Azure KPI that is reported, you know, in, in earnings calls every quarter from Microsoft.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 7:50 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Disclosure
GitHub delayed launching conversational AI coding before ChatGPT due to poor quality
“Conversational coding is what we called it was one of the ideas we had. And the only reason we didn't ship that was that it wasn't good enough.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 13:24 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
Assertion Supported
Katz: ClickHouse had second most active GitHub contributors in 2020
“I think it was the, you know, the second second highest open source database management system on GitHub last year in terms of active contributors and perhaps the fastest growing open source database management system on GitHub alone.”
Aaron Katz Nov 16, 2021 ▶ 13:58 Fireside Chat: Aaron Katz (Co-Founder & CEO, ClickHouse) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Opinion
Narayan: dbt serves as GitHub for SQL code
“I think of it as like GitHub for all of your SQL, right?”
Arjun Narayan Mar 15, 2021 ▶ 19:58 Fireside Chat: Arjun Narayan (Founder & CEO, Materialize) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
Jupyter has hundreds of contributors and single-digit million users
“Hundreds. Millions of users. There's about, there's hundreds of thousands of notebooks on GitHub, so draw your own conclusions. It's hard to get specific download numbers, but we estimate single digit millions.”
Jason Grout Feb 3, 2017 ▶ 21:54 Project Jupyter // Jason Grout & Sylvain Corlay, Bloomberg (FirstMark's Data Driven)
Assertion Supported
Data.gov is open-source on GitHub, built with CKAN and WordPress
“So we moved it to an open source project. So it's now CCAN and WordPress. It's on GitHub, so you can actually log an issue or put your, put some feedback. We're pushing code, I think every four weeks or so.”
Nick Sinai Oct 16, 2014 ▶ 8:06 Nick Sinai, White House Deputy CTO // Data Driven #30 // Oct 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Disclosure
NYC secured a grant to release its geo-support codebase on GitHub
“We got a grant from The eponymous learning foundation. And we're going to use that to put the geo support in the, on GitHub in the hopes that people such as yourself will go out and come up with apps that will allow us to leverage what the citizenry is doing a…”
Mike Flowers Dec 5, 2013 ▶ 35:01 Michael Flowers, New York City // Data Driven NYC #17 // June 2013
Assertion Supported
Visual Studio Code was one of GitHub's largest projects before acquisition
“VS Code, the editor, was already on GitHub, and in fact, one of the biggest projects on GitHub in terms of number of contributions.”
Thomas Dohmke Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 4:01 GitHub CEO: The AI Coding Gold Rush, Vibe Coding & Cursor
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