The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 39 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Evans: GPTs could lower software creation costs by an order of magnitude
“The analogy that's been floating around, I think, is, is to compare this with AWS, in the sense that AWS was a sort of an order of magnitude change in how easy you could get a startup out of the door. You didn't need to write all this stuff yourself and buy in…”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 29:10 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
Insight
Evans: Meta and AWS both benefit from AI becoming cheap commodity infrastructure
“In a sense, like, AWS and Meta are on the same page, and then Meta wants this to be cheap, generic commodity infrastructure that's sold at marginal cost, and they will differentiate on cool Facebooky stuff on top. Amazon want this to be cheap, generic commodit…”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 42:21 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
Assertion Supported
Freedman: pgvectorscale on AWS is 75% cheaper than Pinecone
“The monthly costs of running such a PG vector scale deployment on AWS is 75% less expensive than PyIncome.”
Mike Freedman Sep 25, 2024 ▶ 10:22 Turbocharging Postgres for Time Series & Vectors — Timescale CTO Mike Freedman | Data Driven NYC
Disclosure
In mid-2023, multi-billion dollar companies could not obtain AWS GPU nodes
“Last year was, at this time, was absolutely insane. That's why we threw up our own cloud, because there was just like, large companies with multi-billion revenue numbers could not get a node from AWS, despite their accounts being tens of millions or hundreds o…”
Sharon Zhou Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 17:06 Making AI Work: Fine-Tuning, Inference, Memory | Sharon Zhou, CEO, Lamini
Insight
Ghodsi: Creating open-source software gives cloud hosts a competitive advantage
“We're going to host open source software in the cloud, but the difference is we'll create open source software. That way we get competitive advantage with respect to anyone else who would want to do the same thing, right? Otherwise anyone can pick up any open …”
Ali Ghodsi May 24, 2021 ▶ 15:23 Fireside Chat: Ali Ghodsi (Founder & CEO, Databricks) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Partly supported
MongoDB's AGPL license prevented AWS from offering it as a managed service
“It's an open source license, it's a free software foundation approved license, but it's the AGPL, and the AGPL gives us a little bit more advantage than other players, so Amazon can't quite do the same thing that they can with, ah, MySQL as they can with, so t…”
Eliot Horowitz Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 25:58 A Fireside Chat With MongoDB CTO Eliot Horowitz (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Prediction Held up
AWS is nearly certain to reach $100B in annual revenue
“And I think it's a near certainty Amazon's gonna do a hundred billion in revenue in AWS.”
Peter Fenton Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 24:47 A Fireside Chat with Benchmark General Partner Peter Fenton (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Assertion Contradicted
Amazon Web Services holds about 90% market share
“You have a company that's gonna, ah, it's on its path to be, and it is, about a 90% market share player.”
Peter Fenton Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 25:03 A Fireside Chat with Benchmark General Partner Peter Fenton (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Opinion
Evans: AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud are fundamentally different businesses
“The first is if you actually look at the market shares, Google Cloud, Azure, and AWS are actually in quite different businesses. AWS is mostly infrastructure. Microsoft is mostly services. Google is mostly scrambling to catch up in a very distant certain place…”
Benedict Evans Mar 19, 2026 ▶ 3:34 Benedict Evans: OpenAI’s Moat Problem & the Future of Software
Assertion Supported
AWS AI business is growing 3x faster than original AWS
“AWS's AI business is a multi-billion dollar revenue run rate business that continues to grow at a triple digit year over year percentage, and is growing more than three X faster at this stage of its evolution as AWS itself grew”
Matt Turck Nov 8, 2024 ▶ 27:14 Superintelligence, Bubbles And Big Bets: AI Investing in 2024 | Matt Turck & Aman Kabeer, FirstMark
Prediction Held up
Katz: ClickHouse will build a multi-tenant cloud-managed service
“And at the same time in parallel, we are going to build A multi-tenant managed service in the cloud, which will inevitably be deployed on a variety of different cloud platforms, whether it's AWS, GCP, Azure, whether we go to China, like I've done in the past a…”
Aaron Katz Nov 16, 2021 ▶ 16:00 Fireside Chat: Aaron Katz (Co-Founder & CEO, ClickHouse) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Disclosure
DoorDash aims to offer white-label infrastructure services modeled after AWS
“I think we would like to think of ourselves as an infrastructure company. That's right. Where we build products and services to help us in the things we're trying to do, but ultimately we get them to a stage of maturity and robustness through experimenting on …”
Alok Gupta Feb 1, 2021 ▶ 3:02 Fireside Chat: Alok Gupta (Head of Data Science & ML, DoorDash) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Opinion
Google Cloud product maturity is far ahead of AWS and Azure
“So I think, I personally think, and not me, many of the analysts, like Gartner, Forrester, and many others, that the product maturity of what Google has, especially when it comes to data warehousing, or this kind of stuff, application modernization, or machine…”
Amr Awadallah Feb 20, 2020 ▶ 18:14 How to Resurrect Innovation in the Enterprise // Amr Awadallah, Google (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Opinion
Uretsky: AWS is difficult to use and has a steep learning curve
“While AWS is a great tool, there's a pretty big steep learning curve. It's difficult to use, as I said.”
Ben Uretsky Mar 19, 2019 ▶ 5:08 Fireside Chat: Ben Uretsky, Founder of DigitalOcean (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
White: Sailthru's co-location hardware paid off within one year
“We looked at it, and it paid off in basically a year after, after purchasing that hardware.”
Ian White Mar 3, 2014 ▶ 17:44 Ian White, Sailthru // Data Driven NYC 23 // January 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Supported
Rauch: AWS started as e-commerce APIs, not spare hardware capacity
“A lot of people believe that AWS started out because it had spare hardware. If you listen to the AWS episode on the acquired podcast, the story is actually way more interesting. The reason that it's called Amazon web services. Is that there was a hypothesis in…”
Guillermo Rauch Jun 26, 2025 ▶ 37:32 Guillermo Rauch: Why Software Development Will Never Be the Same
What-if
Failing to abstract region-based storage early cost Canva a monumental re-architecture
“Very early in Canva's architectural journey, we put a quite good abstraction in over our AWS infrastructure, but I do think back now and wonder, oof, we could have just spent a little bit more time Really abstraction, abstracting region-based storage. It would…”
Brendan Humphreys Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 47:35 Inside a $3B ARR Rocketship — Canva CTO Brendan Humphreys on Deploying AI at Scale
Assertion Supported
Evans: Big Tech data center spending will exceed $300B this year
“Google, Meta AWS, not Amazon overall, AWS only, and Microsoft spent about two hundred twenty billion dollars building data centers last year, and will spend about 300, maybe over 300 this year, depending on where their numbers come out.”
Benedict Evans May 22, 2025 ▶ 40:35 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on What Really Matters Now
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bernhardsson: AWS EC2 retains 50% to 70% profit margins
“At the end of the day, like EC two is like what, like, you know, 50, 60, 70% margins. It's actually, you know, not as much of a commodity as like people think.”
Erik Bernhardsson Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 35:22 Can AI Infrastructure Work Like Magic? Erik Bernhardsson, CEO, Modal
Insight
Foursquare's platform strategy resembles Amazon building AWS
“One analogy I like to use for the team internally is what we've been up to over the last three years is really similar in some sense to Amazon building AWS many moons ago. Right? Realizing they had built up a bunch of infrastructure. Hey, a bunch of customers …”
Gary Little Apr 3, 2024 ▶ 6:29 Foursquare’s Remarkable Transformation Into Leading Location Intelligence Platform | Gary Little
Assertion Not checkable as stated
The API security market did not materialize until AWS and mobile launched
“My second company, we started talking about API security and management in 2003. Nobody knew what the hell an API was. They couldn't even spell an API until really Amazon Web Services came out, mobile applications took off. So you're really looking at 2009, 20…”
Dimitri Sirota Jan 30, 2023 ▶ 30:38 Data Visibility & Control | BigID Co-Founder & CEO Dimitri Sirota
Insight
Fraser: Building custom data pipelines works best for large, stable internal sources
“If the data source is really large, it's something that's just yours, so Fivetran's never going to build a connector to it, and it's relatively stable, like it's not constantly changing configuration, then you can build your own data pipeline using the tools p…”
George Fraser Sep 18, 2020 ▶ 40:40 Fireside Chat: George Fraser (Founder & CEO, Fivetran) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
Fraser: Amazon Redshift was the first cheap, fast data warehouse
“Redshift was incredibly important because it was, it came out in 2013. It was in the AWS console. It wasn't the first really good fast data warehouse, but it was the first one that was cheap.”
George Fraser Sep 18, 2020 ▶ 5:09 Fireside Chat: George Fraser (Founder & CEO, Fivetran) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Supported
Borgman: AWS Athena runs on Presto under the covers
“Athena actually runs on Presto under the covers, so that is the technology behind Athena.”
Justin Borgman Mar 19, 2019 ▶ 3:27 Optionality in Data Architecture // Justin Borgman, Starburst Data (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Insight
Bhardwaj: Building operational apps needs better abstractions than raw cloud services
“There should be a better way to plug it, to build these applications and to distribute these applications than, like, the building blocks provided by these services.”
Anant Bhardwaj Jan 17, 2019 ▶ 6:11 Why Does The World Need Another Computer? // Anant Bhardwaj, Instabase (FirstMark's Data Driven NYC)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Muglia: Snowflake competes with only three AWS services, primarily Redshift
“We do compete with Redshift. I think Amazon has a 150 different services in their portfolio. We compete with maybe Three, depending on whether you want to include Athena and Spectrum in that.”
Bob Muglia Apr 9, 2018 ▶ 19:47 Fireside Chat with Bob Muglia, CEO at Snowflake (FirstMark's Data Driven)
Prediction Held up
Muglia: AWS will remain the leading cloud provider for the foreseeable future
“They're the leading cloud provider. We anticipate they'll be in that role, in that situation for the foreseeable future, perhaps, perhaps in, in, you know, certainly through my career.”
Bob Muglia Apr 9, 2018 ▶ 21:22 Fireside Chat with Bob Muglia, CEO at Snowflake (FirstMark's Data Driven)
Disclosure
Sailthru moved its infrastructure off AWS cloud to co-location in 2012
“By 2012, our ops team had grown to the size where it made sense, both on a capex basis and on an operational basis, just to move off of the cloud, to move our infrastructure off of AWS and into our own colo.”
Ian White Mar 3, 2014 ▶ 7:50 Ian White, Sailthru // Data Driven NYC 23 // January 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Assertion Supported
Katti: OpenAI sources compute from all major cloud hyperscalers
“We have compute from, effectively, many sources. So, Microsoft, obviously, is a big partner, important partner. We also have compute, as we have announced, from AWS, Ion Google. So, we have compute from all of the hyperscalers, effectively.”
Sachin Katti Jul 16, 2026 ▶ 28:35 OpenAI’s Compute Chief: We Can’t Build Fast Enough | Sachin Katti
Assertion Supported
Levie: Box launched a year before AWS, forcing self-built infrastructure
“We actually had to build out infrastructure for the first decade and a half because merely we started the company six months too early. So we started the company and our first launch was on these co-located servers. And Amazon web services didn't launch until …”
Aaron Levie Apr 17, 2025 ▶ 24:10 Box’s Big AI Leap: Aaron Levie on Agents & the Future of Work
Opinion
Rogojan prefers AWS and GCP due to Azure usability issues
“I have my own qualms with Azure every time I use it. So I just like AWS and GCP slightly better.”
Ben Rogojan (Seattle Data Guy) Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 21:39 Understanding Data Engineering in 2025 | Ben Rogojan, Seattle Data Guy
Disclosure
Reddit runs production on AWS and analytics/ML on GCP
“From the top view, I'd say we're AWS prod with originally a lot of Postgres For a variety of prod systems, we actually transit almost all that stuff over to GCP, and we use TensorFlow and BigQuery for our analytics and our model concerns”
Jack Hanlon Mar 15, 2021 ▶ 9:36 Fireside Chat: Jack Hanlon (VP Data, Reddit) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Disclosure
Oppenheimer: Algorithmia co-sells products directly with AWS and Azure
“Some of them we actually do co-selling experiences with them where, you know, we're, you know, we're informing their sales forces to say, hey, this is a product that exists on AWS, this is a product that exists on Azure, And you can actually go ahead and use i…”
Diego Oppenheimer Mar 2, 2018 ▶ 23:15 Building an Operating System for AI // Diego Oppenheimer, Algorithmia (FirstMark's Data Driven)
Assertion Partly supported
AWS operates at 20% operating margins
“They're operating at 20% operating margins,”
Peter Fenton Mar 18, 2016 ▶ 24:55 A Fireside Chat with Benchmark General Partner Peter Fenton (Data Driven NYC / FirstMark)
Disclosure
Sumo Logic scaled to 400 customers in four years via AWS
“Having an idea and going a gray lock to now having 400 customers in four years was not possible. You know, even 10 years ago without companies like AWS and software and so on.”
Vance Loiselle Sep 22, 2014 ▶ 8:28 Vance Loiselle, Sumo Logic // Data Driven #29 // Sep 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Disclosure
Sumo Logic runs a 2,000-node AWS cluster
“We run about a 2000 node cluster right now in AWS.”
Vance Loiselle Sep 22, 2014 ▶ 5:38 Vance Loiselle, Sumo Logic // Data Driven #29 // Sep 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
Insight
Ehrenberg: AWS and modern CPUs eliminate need for big iron architecture
“On the one hand, you've got, you know, things like, you know, EC-II and AWS, which facilitate, you know, the storage of massive amounts of data without your own your own big iron architecture, and at the same time, the CPUs to be able to process that magnitude…”
Roger Ehrenberg Dec 5, 2013 ▶ 2:32 "The Business of Data" Panel // October 2011
Assertion Partly supported
Pinterest uses AWS exclusively for its cloud infrastructure
“Pinterest of course only uses AWS, as they've mentioned.”
Bindu Reddy Apr 5, 2021 ▶ 15:52 Fireside Chat: Bindu Reddy (Founder & CEO, Abacus.AI) with Matt Turck (Partner, FirstMark)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sailthru operated hundreds of AWS nodes prior to late 2011
“Before the end of 2011, we had hundreds of nodes on AWS.”
Ian White Mar 3, 2014 ▶ 7:44 Ian White, Sailthru // Data Driven NYC 23 // January 2014 (Hosted by FirstMark Capital)
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