The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
The music industry will be bigger than ever thanks to generative AI
“And now that people are making music again, I think the music industry is going to be bigger than it's ever been.”
Patel: AI will generate original insights absent from human knowledge
“We will have original insights generated that don't exist in the human corpus of knowledge. And we will have the physical world get augmented to language where capacity is augmented to humans.”
Mann: Global AI capex is on track to reach trillions
“Like, if you extrapolate the exponential on how much companies are spending, it's like two, two x a year, roughly, in terms of capex, and today we're maybe in the, like, globally, three hundred billion dollar range, the entire industry spending on this and so …”
Schulhoff: Autonomous AI coding agents will suffer prompt-injection code exploits
“We're just going to see these things get deployed and they're going to be broken. So there's a lot of like AI coding agents out there. There's Cursor, there's, I guess, Windsurf, Devon, Copilot. So all of those tools exist and they can do things right now Like…”
Schwartz: AI Overviews Will Devastate Generic Informational Sites Like WebMD
“So if you are WebMD, And you're writing content about the human body, just generic content that has existed since medical journals were created. AI overviews are going to be fantastic at giving you that answer. You know, you read a, you know, you have a headac…”
Balfour: OpenAI job postings signal an imminent third-party agent platform launch
“There's all sorts of signals that They're about to launch a third party platform. They've been hiring for a bunch of roles. I've seen multiple postings on like product manager, engineering roles, all that kind of stuff for, you know, quote unquote agent platfo…”
Turley: ChatGPT will hit one billion users soon
“We're gonna hit a billion users soon, and you kind of have to begin acting in a way that is appropriate to that scale.”
Osika: AI will soon automate product analytics, recommendations, and A/B tests
“AIs can do that on absolutely massive scale and propose changes to a human to say like, oh yeah, that sounds like a good change to make it a bit more intuitive. And it can also automatically run, spin out A-B tests so that you can see with data, all these impr…”
Mosseri: Frontier AI models will enter a pricing war
“I think costs will go up because we'll just be using more tokens, not because the prices will necessarily go up, but then I think prices will come down because all of these frontier models are gonna be in a bit of a pricing war.”
Kalinowski: AI Will Handle Basic PCB Component Selection and Trace Routing
“It's increasingly looking like AI can route inside of these boards pretty well, and it's looking like AI is going to be able to do some basic component selection and layout on these boards.”
Balfour: Cursor is on track to launch a developer agent platform
“Cursor is very clear, like cursor's on the path to also probably create some type of agent platform, right? For developers. So that'll be like a smaller ecosystem to play in for some products.”
Wilkinson: Wearable AI Will Automatically Populate To-Do Lists and Emails
“And so eventually I haven't gotten there yet, but eventually you'll be able to just have it record your entire day and then automatically go into your to-do list or whatever it is and add to-dos or send emails or whatever you need it to do.”
Mohan: Local IDEs and local development probably won't disappear within years
“The IDE and building locally has been a thing that people have done for, you know, decades, so probably it's not going to go away in the next, like, couple years.”
OpenAI plans to launch GPT Store monetization in Q1 2024
“Like I think monetization when it comes to the store later this quarter, I think is going to be extremely exciting. Like when people can get paid based on who's using their GPTs, that's going to be a huge unlock and like open a lot of people's eyes to the oppo…”
Miller: The Browser Company will almost definitely eventually hire formal PMs
“I think it will almost definitely happen with us. And again, this goes back to the assume you don't know.”
Mochary: Growth tech valuations will remain depressed for two to three years
“It's all based on interest rates. So it's likely that growth stocks will be at these valuations for until interest rates come back down again, which could be two to three years.”
Tech industry layoffs are far from finished, Fishman predicted in 2022
“And I don't think we're done yet. I think we're pretty far from being done, but it's really important.”
Salva: AI will be core to the developer toolchain by 2026
“Students build not only the kind of the tool, the software that the business needs, and then get to put that on their resume and their, you know, application for college and university, but they also get to learn by kind of using the tools that likely are goin…”