The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 444 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 24 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
McCabe: Intercom Will Outgrow Every Public Software Company Next Year
“I think we're going to find ourselves being the fastest growing out of all relative to all public software companies.”
Mann: 50% chance of reaching superintelligence in a small handful of years
“I think, like, 50th percentile chance of hitting some kind of super intelligence in just a small handful of years is probably reasonable, and it does sound crazy, but this is the exponential that we're on.”
A sudden, fast-takeoff scenario for AI will not happen
“Like the line of reasoning for that case is always everything up until now, then something happens that no one can quite articulate and then fast take off. So I don't believe that that's going to happen.”
Evans: AI Model Providers Will Lack Pricing Power and Become Commodities
“And so it does sort of seem to me that like, if the chatbot isn't the UX and it needs to be apps and the model companies aren't going to build that. And the models themselves are basically commodities, as, at least as you can see them as users, then why would …”
Shipper: SaaS stocks will rise majorly, defying fears of a SaaS apocalypse
“I think the SAS apocalypse is dumb and SAS stocks will be up majorly in the next couple of years.”
Shipper: Mass unemployment predicted by AI CEOs is not going to happen
“I think that, like, some AI CEOs are talking about, like, I think that's not gonna happen.”
Singhal: Half of PMs are 'information movers' who will become obsolete
“Now what we're essentially saying is the information mover is essentially going to become a dinosaur. And I think about half of the product people that were kind of, that grew into the industry, you know, have that skill and superpower.”
Singhal: Tech diversity and geographic breadth will regress significantly during AI wave
“Sadly, I think that geography and actually diversity is going to take a step back. I think that we were very good about driving more breath. As we grew the industry, we started looking at people who were from different backgrounds to populate it, including dif…”
Cherny predicts coding will be increasingly solved across all stacks within months
“And over the next few months, I think what we're going to see is just across the industry, it's going to become increasingly solved, you know, for every kind of code base, every tech stack that people work on.”
Cherny: Understanding underlying code layers won't matter in one to two years
“My take is, I think for people that are using that are using quad code, that are using agents to code today, you still have to understand the layer under. But yeah, in a year or two, it's not gonna matter.”
AI will reward better judgment over raw code output
“People like me, people watching that are like, should I start learning how to code? If you haven't done it yet, I, I'd honestly say no. Like, you're optimizing for the wrong skill set. We won't be rewarded in the world of AI for faster raw output. We will be r…”
Andreessen: Global depopulation makes AI necessary to replace missing human workers
“We actually need AI to work because we're going to need, you know, we're going to need machines to do all the jobs that we're not going to have people to do. Because we're literally going to depopulate, we're going to depopulate the planet over the next hundre…”
Andreessen: AI will create widespread hiring booms that swamp job substitution
“Even if AI, like, triples the pace of economic change in the economy, it's going to just translate to, like, a much higher rate of economic growth is going to transfer, translate to a much higher rate of job growth. And, you know, there, there'll be some level…”
Arnovitz predicts job titles will collapse as AI makes everyone a builder
“I think titles are going to collapse and responsibilities are going to collapse and everyone's just going to be building.”
Lessin: Seed VCs backing AI companies will lose an 'impossibly large amount'
“I think that the venture capital, the seed venture capitalists who invest in companies that are branded as AI companies are going to lose an impossibly large amount of money in the coming years.”
Lemkin: Net demand for sales and GTM professionals will hit record highs
“Net net, we're gonna need more sales and go to market professionals than ever. Because the winners are growing so quickly that even if they're more efficient, they will need more human beings than ever.”
Lemkin: Interconnected AI hive minds will put human GTM roles at risk
“When AI really is the hive mind, when it can share all of the data across all of your agents and knows everything that happens, then Humans are at risk in GTM. They're going to be so much better when they're the hive mind”
Schulhoff: AI security sector faces market correction within six to twelve months
“When it comes to AI security, the AI security industry in particular, I think we're going to see a market correction in the next Year, maybe in the next six months where companies realize that these guardrails don't work.”
Chen: AI Efficiency Will Enable $100 Billion Revenue-Per-Employee Ratios
“And I think we're going to see companies with even crazier ratios, like a hundred billion per employee in the next few years. AI is just going to get better and better and make things more efficient. So that ratio just becomes inevitable.”
Cohen: Tech companies will need fewer specialized roles than before
“I think there are system builders that empower full stack builders and then you have people who are specialized, but I don't think we need as many specialized people as we did in the past.”
Prasanna: AI will make teams rewrite entire apps instead of refactoring
“And I think that you're gonna see instead of us, for example, refactoring a, an app to have a different UI or to evolve into its new version, we're just gonna rewrite that app from scratch.”
Horowitz predicts Adam Neumann's Flow will be a16z's best investment
“And I think it's going to end up being one of the best investments we ever made.”
Oji Udezue: AI capabilities will eventually surpass thermonuclear weapons in power
“We think of AI and its core capabilities as ordinance level, meaning like at some point we'll think of this as more powerful than the fusion bomb.”
Mann: It will probably be too late to align models post-superintelligence
“Like once we get to super intelligence, it will be too late to align the models. Probably.”
Shipper: AI will not cause mass unemployment across the workforce
“I hate the headlines that are like, it's going to replace jobs. Or like, it's going to unemployed like two thirds of the workforce. Like, I don't think that's true.”
Scott Wu: Devin will author over 50% of Cognition's code by year-end
“I think by the end of this year, we expect it to be more than half.”
Wu: There will be far more software engineers in a few years
“And so if anything, I think there's going to be, I think there's going to be way more product, way more programmers and way more engineers, you know, a few years from now than there are today.”
Truell: Long-term demand for software engineers will increase despite AI
“I think long into the future, yes, there will actually be more demand for engineers.”
Mohan: Niche vertical SaaS products will get competed down significantly
“These very, very verticalized niche products. I think are going to get, they're going to get competed down a ton.”
Clowes: AI will entrench dominant enterprise SaaS incumbents over startups
“The most likely outcome is that the currently dominant companies are going to get more dominant. But I don't think this idea that it would just cause a spring up of a whole bunch of new, new apps that will more easily challenge the incumbents makes any particu…”
Godin: Traditional truck buyers will not adopt the Tesla Cybertruck
“So now, if you bring people in that category who are inherently skeptical of change, and inherently skeptical of design trickery, something that is nothing but change and design trickery, No, they're not going to adopt it. You could have sold an enormous numbe…”
Masad: By 2029, a zero-employee company will hit a billion-dollar valuation
“But I could imagine like whatever, five years from now someone running, you know, a billion dollar company with zero employees, where it's like the support is handled by AI. The development is handled by AI.”
Claire Vo: Traditional product management is dead or will be soon
“Product management is dead. It, or it will be soon, and so I'm here to talk about what we're all going to do Instead.”
Vo: AI Will Collapse the Product Talent Stack into Unified Roles
“And this is one of my strongly held beliefs about the art of product management, which I've made a career out of, is I think AI will collapse The talent stack. So what I mean is these jobs that have been separate will start to become one”
Vo: AI-Powered 'Triple Threat' Leads Will Replace Traditional Product Triads
“I think you're going to see what I would call an AI-powered triple threat. Basically, one person that can do engineering design product as a lead of a team which includes AI tools, agents, and platforms as part of that team. And I think this is what we're goin…”
Schwartz: AI Startups Cannot Unseat Google Purely on Search Product Quality
“I don't think there's a chance, and this is the biggest takeaway, I don't think there's a chance that ChatGPT or Perplexity or Claude or any of these other LLM startups, because they're startups now, even, even OpenAI as a startup with Bing's part, with Micros…”
Bier predicts most new apps won't have social graphs, entrenching incumbents
“Most likely I think most apps will not have social graphs going forward and this will entrench incumbents even more.”
Shah: Pursuing wealth equality is bad because wealth naturally concentrates
“I have a strong view that we will never, never have equality of wealth. In fact, chasing that is actually a bad idea, but if you let people do well and chase wealth, they'll have enough wealth for everybody else and we could take a lot of people out. And I thi…”
Evans: Remote work will triumph over in-person offices in the long term
“I have so much more faith in the opportunity to improve the remote experience. And so I think long-term it's going to triumph.”
Lochhead: Zuckerberg will blow over $1B on Threads, and it will fail
“Zuckerberg is going to blow in excess of a billion dollars on threads, and it will fail. It already has failed, because you can't take an existing problem with an existing solution, launch exactly the same shit, tell the world it's better, and have the world e…”
Lochhead: VCs will waste $500B on copycat AI startups over five years
“Venture capitalists in the next five years will blow at least half a trillion dollars in the AI space alone on me too. Demand chasing category, existing category competing startups that have a 10 X better product. No one cares.”
Salva: GitHub Copilot Will Never Replace Developers
“Copilot is not a replacement for a developer. It will never be.”
Enterprises will split work between cheap open-weight and expensive frontier models
“I think what we're going to see is a split between job functions that demand kind of mid IQ intelligence, and those will often be open weight, sort of biased with reinforcement learning, you know, things that make the models even cheaper, more performant for a…”
The music industry will be bigger than ever thanks to generative AI
“And now that people are making music again, I think the music industry is going to be bigger than it's ever been.”
Mosseri: Tech will shift to smaller teams with fewer large-org managers
“I think we'll have more smaller teams and there'll be less people who manage thousands of people. And so That's not that that job will go away, but that will be less of what I'm looking for in hires because I'm gonna have less roles like that.”
Mosseri: Engineer token burn could match salary within two years
“I think that you can imagine at least in a year or two. Coming that the burn rate of a strong engineer might be the same as their salary or their cost of employment.”
Mosseri: Rise of AI content will be a tailwind for Instagram
“In a world where there's an abundance of synthetic content, I actually think people are going to seek out creativity and authenticity and people more, not less. And I think that that will help us. That doesn't mean that we won't have AI content on our platform…”