why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev predicts AI mathematical proofs will scale to 100,000 pages in three years
“So, you know, right now, let's say you can easily at low cost produce a proof that's 10 pages long and actually we can produce longer ones, but just as an example per per unit cost and time, you can produce a 10 page proof while in a year it'll get to a hundre…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Tokenization will lead non-US private investing before entering US
“Tokenization will be the primary vehicle for ex-US investment until we get regulatory clarity and you'll see tokenization of privates seep into the US as well.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Private companies will lose pricing control due to derivative markets
“So I think that it's gonna be tough increasingly in a global market to Have as much control over, over the price as maybe private companies have historically had.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Retail access to private company shares will become standardized
“And I think the same thing is going to happen for private retail access. It's just going to go earlier stage, but the benefits are so strong that I think that there'll be It'll be standardized as time goes on.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: AI market will see multiple domain-specialized models, not one winner
“I think there's going to be multiple models and it's really going to depend on the data that is used to feed them.
So for example, one thing that's great about Aristotle, which is harmonics model is you've got mathematicians that are using it to ask very comp…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Push-button digital fundraising will happen for all companies
“You could imagine a digital fundraising process where you're plugged into, you know, an electronic market and you can push a button and you get the capital to run your business. I think that'll happen, not just for crypto companies, but for all types of compan…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Generative AI tools will increase creative output 100x to 1,000x
“So you can imagine to create really high quality Advertising collateral would have taken a lot of, like, deep work over a long period of time by great artists, but if you can empower those artists with the best tools, 11 Labs, Mid Journey, Runway, you know, th…”