The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tenev: Robinhood does not have any business with hedge funds
“We don't really have any business with hedge funds.”
Tenev: Harmonic solved at least one unsolved Erdős problem
“There's something like 1100 Erdos problems. About half of them are open unsolved. And yeah, Harmonic solved at least one of them.”
Tenev predicts AI mathematical proofs will scale to 100,000 pages in three years
“So, you know, right now, let's say you can easily at low cost produce a proof that's 10 pages long and actually we can produce longer ones, but just as an example per per unit cost and time, you can produce a 10 page proof while in a year it'll get to a hundre…”
Tenev: Harmonic surpassed Google AlphaProof's capabilities within one year
“Alpha Proof was the first AI model to get a silver medal, to achieve silver medal performance at the IMO last year.
But Alpha Proof they did not announce a gold this year.
So, yeah, we were we were, the Harmonic team was excited about that, that, you know, i…”
Tenev: Tokenization will lead non-US private investing before entering US
“Tokenization will be the primary vehicle for ex-US investment until we get regulatory clarity and you'll see tokenization of privates seep into the US as well.”
Tenev: Private companies will lose pricing control due to derivative markets
“So I think that it's gonna be tough increasingly in a global market to Have as much control over, over the price as maybe private companies have historically had.”
Tenev: Retail access to private company shares will become standardized
“And I think the same thing is going to happen for private retail access. It's just going to go earlier stage, but the benefits are so strong that I think that there'll be It'll be standardized as time goes on.”
Tenev: Robinhood restricted GameStop trading for about one day
“We had to make a tough call to put GameStop and a bunch of other companies on position closing only, which basically meant you couldn't open up new positions, take on more risk for a period of about one day.”
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle achieved gold medal performance at the IMO
“Earlier this year, we actually achieved gold medal performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad, which is the world's most prestigious mathematics competition. These are like cracked high schoolers, like five people got perfect scores in the Internat…”
Tenev: The vast majority of Aristotle's training data is synthetic
“All of the data that the vast majority of the data that trains Aristotle is actually data that we generate. It's not, you know, internet data.”
Tenev: AI market will see multiple domain-specialized models, not one winner
“I think there's going to be multiple models and it's really going to depend on the data that is used to feed them.
So for example, one thing that's great about Aristotle, which is harmonics model is you've got mathematicians that are using it to ask very comp…”
Tenev: Push-button digital fundraising will happen for all companies
“You could imagine a digital fundraising process where you're plugged into, you know, an electronic market and you can push a button and you get the capital to run your business. I think that'll happen, not just for crypto companies, but for all types of compan…”
Tenev: Robinhood gave free GameStop shares to new users in 2020
“GameStop was one of the collection of free, free stocks that was given to customers.”
Tenev: Zuckerberg, Musk, and Benioff called during GameStop crisis
“Mark Zuckerberg called me, and Elon Musk called me, Mark Benioff called me”
Tenev: Robinhood Has 11 Business Lines Generating Over $100M Annually
“We become a business that has 11 business lines now with over a hundred million in annual revenue.”
Tenev: Most Robinhood customer service interactions are handled by AI agents
“By and large, if you interact with customer service on Robinhood, you're interacting with our AI agents.”
Tenev: Generative AI tools will increase creative output 100x to 1,000x
“So you can imagine to create really high quality Advertising collateral would have taken a lot of, like, deep work over a long period of time by great artists, but if you can empower those artists with the best tools, 11 Labs, Mid Journey, Runway, you know, th…”
Tenev: Robinhood AI customer support executes transactional backend actions
“Then you have phase three, which is, okay, now I can actually do non-read only actions. I can change stuff. Maybe I'll refund you if, you know, you're not happy with your purchase. You can refund your gold subscription fee. So that involves actually some prett…”
Tenev: Robinhood Lost Over 80% of Market Value Post-IPO
“We went from IPO-ing at about a thirty two billion dollar valuation in 2020 one to in 2022, we were We were trading at like six dollars and change. So we lost. 80% plus of our market value since IPO”
Tenev: Robinhood Retirement Has Over 1.5M Accounts
“We followed that up with Robinhood retirement, which has Over one and a half million accounts.”
Tenev: Robinhood scaled from 700 staff to thousands and nearly $1B revenue in 2020
“We went from, I'd say, end of 20 19, we had 700 people and something like 202 hundred and change million in annual revenue to in the next year, end of 20 20, we had thousands of people and close to a billion in revenue. It's like a three, three, three X plus i…”
Tenev: Robinhood IPO Access has facilitated roughly 50 IPOs since 2021
“So we have a great IPO access offering, which is the number one retail channel for IPO participation. And we started this in 20, 21 around the time that we went public. And we've done, I think, roughly 50 IPOs since the beginning.”
Tenev: Robinhood Gold Card has over 500,000 cardholders
“Even though it's still not completely generally available, we do have over half a million cardholders and we're among the fastest growing credit cards.”