The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 37 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tenev: Robinhood does not have any business with hedge funds
“We don't really have any business with hedge funds.”
Tenev: Harmonic solved at least one unsolved Erdős problem
“There's something like 1100 Erdos problems. About half of them are open unsolved. And yeah, Harmonic solved at least one of them.”
Tenev predicts AI mathematical proofs will scale to 100,000 pages in three years
“So, you know, right now, let's say you can easily at low cost produce a proof that's 10 pages long and actually we can produce longer ones, but just as an example per per unit cost and time, you can produce a 10 page proof while in a year it'll get to a hundre…”
Tenev: Harmonic surpassed Google AlphaProof's capabilities within one year
“Alpha Proof was the first AI model to get a silver medal, to achieve silver medal performance at the IMO last year.
But Alpha Proof they did not announce a gold this year.
So, yeah, we were we were, the Harmonic team was excited about that, that, you know, i…”
Tenev: Tokenization will lead non-US private investing before entering US
“Tokenization will be the primary vehicle for ex-US investment until we get regulatory clarity and you'll see tokenization of privates seep into the US as well.”
Tenev: Private companies will lose pricing control due to derivative markets
“So I think that it's gonna be tough increasingly in a global market to Have as much control over, over the price as maybe private companies have historically had.”
Tenev: Retail access to private company shares will become standardized
“And I think the same thing is going to happen for private retail access. It's just going to go earlier stage, but the benefits are so strong that I think that there'll be It'll be standardized as time goes on.”
Tenev: Legacy card issuers are too bloated to match 3% cash back
“I think it's a cost structure problem. You look at the big credit card companies and they have tens of thousands of people, right? Tens of thousands of people that are manually servicing the, these accounts and, you know, that they spend a ton of money on mark…”
Tenev: Robinhood is taking Robinhood Ventures public
“And with Rob, with Robinhood Ventures, we're taking that fun public, so we're doing another IPO, and I joked that yeah, it's kind of like that, the IPO process, I remember being painful, and I didn't like it, but I don't really exactly remember why, and now I …”
Tenev: Robinhood restricted GameStop trading for about one day
“We had to make a tough call to put GameStop and a bunch of other companies on position closing only, which basically meant you couldn't open up new positions, take on more risk for a period of about one day.”
Tenev: Company-wide wellness days make no sense and create operational risk
“I was like, I don't want to be a wellness day company. We have generous PTO. Take a PTO. And this whole idea that an entire org or team would take the same day off. That seems like a problem. What if there's an issue and we need someone? The entire org is taki…”
Tenev: Excessive corporate processes prevent companies from firing low performers
“Generally speaking, I think what most companies suffer from is process getting in the way and actually making it very, very difficult for people to get rid of low performers.”
Tenev: Brokerages Age Out Unless They Actively Hire Early-Career Talent
“A lot of the companies in our space tend to get older as they get further along, and the, you know, the folks working there can be more disconnected from the young people, and then that puts you at risk of becoming a more of a generational company in the sense…”
Tenev: Robinhood Avoids Routine 1-on-1s in Favor of On-Demand Meetings
“I don't like having a lot of one-on-ones and some people are big one-on-one fans, but over time I've You know, my one on ones are basically on demand when you need something critical or some important decision needs to be made.”
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle achieved gold medal performance at the IMO
“Earlier this year, we actually achieved gold medal performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad, which is the world's most prestigious mathematics competition. These are like cracked high schoolers, like five people got perfect scores in the Internat…”
Tenev: The vast majority of Aristotle's training data is synthetic
“All of the data that the vast majority of the data that trains Aristotle is actually data that we generate. It's not, you know, internet data.”
Tenev: AI market will see multiple domain-specialized models, not one winner
“I think there's going to be multiple models and it's really going to depend on the data that is used to feed them.
So for example, one thing that's great about Aristotle, which is harmonics model is you've got mathematicians that are using it to ask very comp…”
Tenev: Push-button digital fundraising will happen for all companies
“You could imagine a digital fundraising process where you're plugged into, you know, an electronic market and you can push a button and you get the capital to run your business. I think that'll happen, not just for crypto companies, but for all types of compan…”
Tenev: Robinhood funds 3% card cashback via brokerage cross-sell flywheel
“So in order to get the three percent cash back, you actually have to deposit the funds into your brokerage account. And so we've created this flywheel through Robinhood Gold where by using the credit card, you also use the brokerage product... If someone uses …”
Tenev: Robinhood gave free GameStop shares to new users in 2020
“GameStop was one of the collection of free, free stocks that was given to customers.”
Tenev: Zuckerberg, Musk, and Benioff called during GameStop crisis
“Mark Zuckerberg called me, and Elon Musk called me, Mark Benioff called me”
Tenev: Robinhood Has 11 Business Lines Generating Over $100M Annually
“We become a business that has 11 business lines now with over a hundred million in annual revenue.”
Tenev: Leaders should build confidence by publicly reversing small mistakes first
“Things get easier if you do them multiple times. And you could practice doing this once and making a big show of it. Like, actually, maybe you take a small thing that you were wrong about that you wanted to undo and just say, I want to tell you about something…”
Tenev: Paying managers by team size incentivizes corporate empire building
“Think about a typical company. People are paid Generally proportional to the org size that they manage. And if you think about what that incentivizes empire building. I want to have a big org with a big team because then according to traditional HR metrics, I'…”
Tenev: Most Robinhood customer service interactions are handled by AI agents
“By and large, if you interact with customer service on Robinhood, you're interacting with our AI agents.”
Tenev: Generative AI tools will increase creative output 100x to 1,000x
“So you can imagine to create really high quality Advertising collateral would have taken a lot of, like, deep work over a long period of time by great artists, but if you can empower those artists with the best tools, 11 Labs, Mid Journey, Runway, you know, th…”
Tenev: Robinhood AI customer support executes transactional backend actions
“Then you have phase three, which is, okay, now I can actually do non-read only actions. I can change stuff. Maybe I'll refund you if, you know, you're not happy with your purchase. You can refund your gold subscription fee. So that involves actually some prett…”
Tenev: Robinhood Lost Over 80% of Market Value Post-IPO
“We went from IPO-ing at about a thirty two billion dollar valuation in 2020 one to in 2022, we were We were trading at like six dollars and change. So we lost. 80% plus of our market value since IPO”
Tenev: Robinhood Retirement Has Over 1.5M Accounts
“We followed that up with Robinhood retirement, which has Over one and a half million accounts.”
Tenev: Robinhood scaled from 700 staff to thousands and nearly $1B revenue in 2020
“We went from, I'd say, end of 20 19, we had 700 people and something like 202 hundred and change million in annual revenue to in the next year, end of 20 20, we had thousands of people and close to a billion in revenue. It's like a three, three, three X plus i…”
Tenev: Robinhood will host 'Yes/No' event on prediction markets and AI
“We're doing one on December 16th of this year. So towards the end of the year, and it's called yes, no. So it's an event on prediction markets and AI.”
Tenev: Robinhood IPO Access has facilitated roughly 50 IPOs since 2021
“So we have a great IPO access offering, which is the number one retail channel for IPO participation. And we started this in 20, 21 around the time that we went public. And we've done, I think, roughly 50 IPOs since the beginning.”
Tenev: Robinhood Gold Card has over 500,000 cardholders
“Even though it's still not completely generally available, we do have over half a million cardholders and we're among the fastest growing credit cards.”
Tenev: Robinhood offers real-time cash delivery in New York
“And it's a combination of things that you won't get anywhere else, like real-time cash delivery. Which is available in New York. So if you're actually here domiciled, you can try that out.”
Tenev: Robinhood's Sage Home Loans partnership discounts mortgages by 75 bps
“Yeah, and we have a mortgage partnership with Sage Home Loans that gives you 75 basis points off of the national average.”
Tenev: Robinhood will avoid underwriting mortgages directly, preferring a bank marketplace
“So I don't think we necessarily want to get into the mortgage underwriting business or holding mortgages, but we want to get, we want to help people with all of their financial needs. And I think for that one, being a network and allowing different banks to co…”
Tenev: Dumb Money was entertaining and Sebastian Stan casting was flattering
“I actually thought, you know, I know it didn't do very well, but I found it more or less entertaining. My favorite part, which maybe wouldn't be other people's favorite part, or maybe it would for some ladies there, was that my character was played by a very g…”