The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schwarzman: True entrepreneurs hate taking risks and only bet on sure things
“Entrepreneurs don't really like taking risk. People who write about them and report on them think they're taking risk, but the person who's actually betting their life really thinks it's going to work, or else why would you bet your life?”
Schwarzman: Debt risk comes from refinancing maturities during downturns, not interest service
“The first rule is never meet a maturity. So if you're borrowing money, you can almost always pay the interest. In almost every case, you analyze it and you see how bad You know, the company performed in previous recessions, and then you take a discount from th…”
Schwarzman: Executives are usually better when older than in their thirties
“That's why when you're older, you're usually a better executive than, you know, when you're in your thirties.”
Schwarzman: '10' executives can play all positions and build enormous businesses
“There are just Some people who have that sixth sense of what's going on in, in their area, they can sense danger, they can see opportunity, they know how to hire people, they inspire loyalty, they tend to be really nice people as a rule, and they can build eno…”
Schwarzman: '9' executives execute reliably but are not franchise-determinative
“A nine is, like, really good person. They can execute anything. They're clever. They're hardworking. They're reliable. You can put them in charge of something where you describe the situation, and they can pretty much bring it home without, you know, coaching,…”
Schwarzman: Real estate supply is 100% visible and takes three years to build
“So the lovely thing about real estate, it's the slowest moving asset class you could ever find. Because supply takes around three years to manifest itself, and a hundred percent of supply is visible because you can't build anything without filing for permits, …”
Schwarzman: Integrated systems fail unless every component is properly coordinated
“Every course they were taking was teaching the same thing. They said it had different names, you know, strategy, production, human relations, marketing, but it was all the same thing, which is that every piece of any integrated system has to be coordinated or …”
Schwarzman: Modern analysts appreciate data less due to instant data generation
“I think it probably makes you appreciate data less. Someone who was trained in my era, you know, every slight nuance in a number is multiplied because you had to fight to produce any number. So you felt everything viscerally, and now you can just look at it on…”
Schwarzman: Client loyalty belongs mostly to the institution, not individual talent
“When you leave an established place, apparently that changes people's views of you. Not in terms of your capability, but maybe it's not you. Maybe it's just the firm where you're working, but for your own ego-driven reasons, you think it's you working at the f…”
Schwarzman: Management success hinges on sequencing and timing, not identifying solutions
“You knew what the right answer was, but if you went ahead and implemented that, you could blow up a whole part of your business, because other people become destabilized. So I learned that, that figuring out what to do wasn't hard, but how to do it, and what k…”
Schwarzman: Founders should only pursue big ideas because effort is equal
“So you ought to wait until you find something that's really worthy of the effort, because you're going to be making a heroic effort in any case, You should find a really big idea addressing a really big opportunity, because then if you win huge, but you also c…”
Schwarzman: Financial firms collapse when wiped-out equity triggers lender runs
“The way financial firms work is that if you have no equity, and people have lent you money to support Your balance sheet, and they realize there's nothing underneath them, then they panic and call their loans, and everyone calls them at the same time, more or …”
Schwarzman: Fear of financial ruin prevents emotional presence with family
“That it's hard to be emotionally present when you're worried about completely wiping out financially.”
Schwarzman: Top-of-cycle investing demands powerful momentum and historically safe pricing
“You always have to know where you are in the cycle, so if you're near the top, this thing's gotta really, it's got a lot to prove to deploy that money. It's gotta have a, just a rip-roaring, wonderful set of momentum thesis, so it'll power through a downturn, …”