The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Remote workers will end up working for in-office colleagues
“Oh, I just said the people who don't go back to the office are going to end up working for the people that do.”
Shane Parrish Oct 18, 2022 ▶ 1:02:54 Neil Pasricha: Simple Rules for Happiness
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rockefeller Predicted Standard Oil Would Someday Refine All Oil
“The Standard Oil Company will someday refine all of the oil and make all of the barrels.”
Shane Parrish Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 1:00:36 John D. Rockefeller: The Principles Behind The Greatest Fortune in History
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Parrish: News Outlets Will Personalize Article Text to Readers' Preferences
“So increasingly, I mean, we're moving to a world. I don't think people quite realize that yet where you and I open the same article in the wall street journal or New York times, it's going to be two different versions of that article that's based on our browsi…”
Shane Parrish Jan 1, 2026 ▶ 1:34:11 How to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones | James Clear
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Remote work and insular socioeconomic environments risk driving political extremism
“The socioeconomic world looks like you, the political world looks like you, and my hunch, and I hope I'm wrong, is that this starts to lead to political extremes.”
Shane Parrish Jan 24, 2023 ▶ 25:56 Carolyn Coughlin: Become A Better Listener
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dyson will likely pass company leadership to an engineer, not an MBA
“It'll be interesting to see what Dyson does with his legacy, but I suspect he won't be passing the business over to an MBA, but rather an engineer who cares deeply about the product About innovation. About the people working for the company.”
Shane Parrish Mar 25, 2025 ▶ 1:08:25 James Dyson: Against the Odds [Outliers]
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Independent thinking rises in value as AI commoditizes standard thought
“And that's going to become more valuable because AI, at least at first, is going to give away standard thinking for free. So it'll raise the bar for some people, but it'll be so conventional for independent and original thinkers.”
Shane Parrish May 16, 2023 ▶ 13:27 Kevin Kelly: Excellent Advice for Living
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