why aren't all 460 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 7 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Snowden's leak of exploitation techniques cost people lives
“You can just reveal the details of the programs, but the actual techniques that he revealed, the software techniques, the exploitation techniques that, I mean, that, that definitely cost people lives that had a huge impact on people working there.”
Assertion Supported
Dick's Destroyed $5M in Guns and Accepted $250M Annual Sales Loss
“After Parkland in 2018, where the shooter had bought a shotgun at Dix, Ed made a decision that would cost at least two hundred and fifty million dollars annually. No more assault rifles. No firearms to anyone under 21. They destroyed five million dollars in ex…”
Assertion Contradicted
Parrish: El Salvador replaced public teachers with Synthesis AI tutoring software
“Oh, so they developed this Synthesis, this AI company developed this tutor, which actually teaches kids, and it's so good that El Salvador, the country, just recently adopted and replaced their teachers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Remote workers will end up working for in-office colleagues
“Oh, I just said the people who don't go back to the office are going to end up working for the people that do.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Rockefeller Predicted Standard Oil Would Someday Refine All Oil
“The Standard Oil Company will someday refine all of the oil and make all of the barrels.”
Assertion Supported
The World Bank Advised Against Building South Korea's Gyeongbu Expressway
“The World Bank told the Korean government the project was economically and technologically infeasible and would add little to Korea's development.”
Assertion Supported
Korean Business Leaders Paid 500 Million Won Bi-Annually to President Park
“He and other major Korean business leaders had been making regular payments to Korean presidents as a matter of routine, For decades. Under Park Chung-hee, it was roughly five hundred million won twice a year.”
Assertion Supported
Wozniak: Jobs hid thousands in Atari bonus money for Breakout design
“Woz writes, the whole thing used 45 chips, and Steve paid me half the 700 bucks he said they paid him. They were paying us based on how few chips I could do it in. Later I found out he got paid a bit more for it. Like a few thousand dollars than he said at the…”
Assertion Contradicted
Volkswagen secretly supplied gray market dealers to maintain artificial scarcity
“He discovered he could sell Volkswagen as a gray marketer, buying beetles that Volkswagen secretly supplied while keeping official dealers on the allocation to create artificial scarcity.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Intelligence agency awarded Holland tens of millions after vowing not to
“I remember going to a meeting a couple of weeks after he left and they were like, oh, we're not going to buy anything from him. And I was like, we're going to end up giving this guy like fifty million bucks a year. I want to say I was closer to reality than th…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2031
Parrish: News Outlets Will Personalize Article Text to Readers' Preferences
“So increasingly, I mean, we're moving to a world. I don't think people quite realize that yet where you and I open the same article in the wall street journal or New York times, it's going to be two different versions of that article that's based on our browsi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Security Pacific Banker Threatened Resignation to Force Home Depot Loan Approval
“He stormed into his CEO's office, slammed the door, and threw his resignation letter on the desk. You don't need a banker, he told the CEO. You need a computer. Hire some young kid to come in here and do my job. I buy people. Bernie Marcus and Arthur Blank are…”
Assertion Supported
Former Home Depot CEO Robert Nardelli Resigned With $210M Severance Package
“He resigned under pressure With a two hundred and ten million dollar severance package that sparked public outrage.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wozniak: Every computer prior to Apple I used front-panel switches and lights
“Every computer before the Apple One had a front panel of switches and lights, he noted. Every computer since has had a keyboard and a screen.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parrish: Apple I marked first time typing on a keyboard displayed directly on-screen
“He didn't realize it then, but this was the first time in history anyone had typed on a keyboard and seen it appear on their own computer screen.”
Assertion Supported
Parrish: Steve Wozniak Sold Cheap Pre-IPO Apple Shares to 40 Excluded Colleagues
“He took his own shares and sold them at a deeply discounted price to 40 colleagues. Who'd been left out after the IPO. He was giving away shares to people he felt deserved them. He called it the Woz plan.”
Assertion Supported
Parrish: Apple's Official Apple III Fix Was Dropping the Machine Onto Desks
“When customers called about system failures, technicians would tell them to lift the front of the computer three to six inches off their desk and drop it. The physical shock might reset the loose chips. The official fix for the computer worth thousands of doll…”
Assertion Partly supported
Parrish: Apple Lost Over $1 Billion on Apple III, Subsidized by Apple II
“In today's money, they'd lost at least a billion dollars on the Apple III, all of it subsidized by the Apple II's success.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parrish: Most Share Buybacks Merely Cover Up Stock Option Dilution
“You know, if you look at most buybacks, they're just covering up stock options.”
Assertion Contradicted
Hetty Green Loaned Over $6M to Save Texas Banks in 1907
“Her son, Ned, revealed years later that during the 19 oh seven panic, Hetty had loaned over six million in Texas alone in addition to her New York loans. She single-handedly kept several banks from failing, prevented numerous businesses from going under, and h…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hetty Green Never Exploited Her Leverage Over Borrowers or Counterparties
“Even when Hetty had a lot of leverage over other people, she never took advantage of them.”
Assertion Supported
FedMart paying double competitor wages in 1957 resulted in lower operating costs
“The San Antonio retailers paid 50 cents an hour in 1957. Saul paid a dollar. Let's look at what happened. Employees could afford health care and dignity. Communities got stable families, not desperate workers. FedMart attracted the best people with near zero t…”
Assertion Supported
Schwab forced succession planning with an asymmetric 5 percent profit-share penalty
“Effective immediately, all manager shares dropped from 50 to 45%. If they appointed an assistant, that person got 10%. If they didn't, the company kept the extra five percent.”
Assertion Partly supported
Les Schwab store managers out-earned most 1970s corporate executives
“By the mid-nineteen seventies, some of the store managers were making over a 100,000 dollars annually, more than most corporate executives in the 19 seventies.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Munger: Imposing artificial hardship on affluent kids only breeds resentment
“One of the only pieces of advice Charlie Munger gave me about parenting over dinner once was the parents that try to artificially impose a different lifestyle on their kids than they are living. And he gave an extreme example of a guy getting, like, chauffeure…”
Assertion Supported
Pattison fired his lowest-performing car salesperson every month without exception
“Two years later, Jimmy had developed what outsiders would call ruthless, but what he saw as a very necessary policy, crystallized in one brutal rule. Every month, whoever sold the fewest cars got fired. No exceptions. No negotiations. No second chances.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sources confirm Anna Wintour was never personally insulting to staff
“She might come across as cold as some, but despite what you think from the double wears Prada, my sources tell me she was never insulting. She valued clarity, speed, and directness.”
Assertion Supported
Buffett: Henry Singleton Had the Best Capital Deployment Record in America
“Warren Buffett once said that Henry Singleton had the best operating and capital deployment record in American business, bar none.”
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Apr 2025
Singleton Made Teledyne First US TV Maker to Exit Before Japanese Competition
“When American TV manufacturers still dominated the US market, Singleton anticipated the coming Japanese competition and exited the business entirely. This shocked industry observers. Packard Bell had a good market share and solid profits, but Singleton saw the…”
Assertion Supported
Vanderbilt Intentionally Crashed a Railroad's Stock to Secretly Acquire Controlling Interest
“Though initially dismissed, Vanderbilt quietly joined the Long Island Railroad Board, redirecting business away from the Stonington. Shareholders panicked at the high debt and reduced traffic. Its stock plummeted, allowing Vanderbilt and his allies, including …”
Assertion Contradicted
Modern department store makeup counters originated with Estée Lauder
“Those makeup counters you see in every department store today with the dedicated chairs and beauty experts. That all started because Estee refused to let her first customer try products alone.”
Assertion Supported
Estée Lauder countered Revlon by running an ad quoting leaked internal memos
“When Revsan's Ethira tried to challenge Clinique later on in the future, Estée authorized an ad in Women's Word Daily that quoted phrases from an upcoming campaign taken directly from his confidential internal memos.”
Assertion Supported
Parrish: Roaring Twenties tax revenues rose while debt fell despite lower tax rates
“The roaring twenties saw tax revenues remain stable or increase even as tax rates dropped, well, federal debt shrank considerably.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parrish: Mellon's personal income surged to $7.8M during the 1929 crash
“In fact, while the market crashed around him, his personal income actually increased from 5.2 million in 1928 to 7.8 million in 1929.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shane Parrish: Multiple U.S. billionaires cannot navigate to their children's schools
“There's more than a couple of billionaires that I'm sure we both know in the United States that couldn't drive their kids to school if they had to, because they don't know where their kids go to school. They don't know how to get there from their house.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Parrish: Remote work and insular socioeconomic environments risk driving political extremism
“The socioeconomic world looks like you, the political world looks like you, and my hunch, and I hope I'm wrong, is that this starts to lead to political extremes.”
Assertion Supported
Rockefeller's Fortune Tripled to Nearly One Billion Dollars After Standard Oil's Breakup
“Rockefeller owned roughly a quarter of every new company, worth about three hundred million the day the court ruled. His fortune skyrocketed to nearly nine hundred million just two years later.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hyundai Earned Top Credit Ratings by Finishing Projects Despite Massive Losses
“When the Ministry of the Interior assigned credit scores to the country's construction firms after the war, Hyundai's was the highest in Korea. Not because they had made money, they had lost a fortune. They got the highest score specifically because they had f…”
Assertion Partly supported
Vietnam War Work Provided Nearly 20% of South Korea's 1967 Foreign Exchange
“23,000 Korean workers in total. Their earnings accounted for 10% of Korea's entire foreign exchange in 1966, And nearly 20% in 1967. After five years of work in Vietnam, more than six hundred and sixty million dollars in foreign currency had been flowed back i…”
Assertion Supported
Hyundai Bought More Heavy Machinery Than Existed in All of South Korea
“Hyundai alone spent over eight million dollars to buy 1900 pieces of heavy equipment for the project. The entire nation of Korea at the time owned only 1400 such machines.”
Assertion Supported
Hyundai Built the World's Largest Shipyard in 27 Months
“Two years and three months after Chung had broken ground on an empty beach, the first stage of the shipyard was complete. It could build ships up to 700,000 tons. It was the largest shipyard on earth.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hyundai Won a Contract Worth Half of South Korea's Entire Annual Budget
“At nine hundred and thirty-one million dollars, it was roughly half the Korean government's entire annual budget. It was the single largest construction contract ever awarded to any company in the history of the world.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hyundai Earned $2B From Foreign Construction Projects in 1979 Alone
“Hyundai earned two billion dollars in gross income from foreign construction projects in 1979 alone. It was now the fourth largest construction company in the world. Revenue had grown over a hundredfold in five years.”
Assertion Supported
Chung Ju-Yung Was Forced to Pay $181M in Government Back Taxes
“Chung fought back, but eventually he was forced to pay one hundred and eighty one million dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Kroc's original McDonald's deal took 1.9% royalty, paying brothers 0.5%
“Kroc would take 1.9% of gross sales from franchisees. He proposed two percent, but the brothers talked him down. Tell a franchisee two percent, they said, and he'll block. Say one and nine 10th, and it sounds like less. Out of that 1.9%, the brothers would rec…”
Assertion Supported
Ray Kroc built a competing store to bankrupt the original founders
“In fact, Ray would go on to open a McDonald's across the street from them and run them out of business.”
Assertion Supported
Parrish: Government Fees Account for 30% of New Home Prices in Canada
“I've seen reports, at least in Canada, that 30% of the price of a new home is basically government fees.”
Assertion Partly supported
Parrish: Henry Singleton repurchased 90% of Teledyne shares over 12 years
“Over the next 12 years, he bought back 90% of Teledyne shares. The result earnings per share exploded a 311% increase in just five years.”