why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
U.S. tariffs are causing Flexport customers to halt domestic manufacturing
“I haven't met anyone who said, oh, because of these tariffs, I'm gonna start doing production in the U.S. I've read some headlines on it, and they've done some White House announcements and things, but like, those aren't my customer base. And my customer base …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ron Conway email secured Flexport a San Francisco license in six hours
“So I told Ron Conway about this situation and he emailed the late Ed Lee, who was our mayor. And I, Ron was like one of his big donors and friends. And we got the license within six hours.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steve Jobs complained to U.S. Customs over ImportGenius data leak
“And I got a call from U.S. Customs saying, hey, we just talked to Steve Jobs and he's really pissed about this. You need to explain where you got this data. Sort of like threatening to show us out.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paul Graham directly told YC investors to back Flexport
“PG himself really liked, liked and likes Flexport and was telling investors, you should invest in this company, which kind of controversial. YC partners, I think they're a little better about it now than they used to be, but they would kind of pick, choose fav…”
Assertion Contradicted
Flexport hired roughly 900 U.S. software engineers over 12 months
“I think we added 900 software engineers in 12, in like 12 months. Oh wow. And turned out, they're all in the U.S. Or almost all in the U.S., Seattle mostly. It was like very expensive people.”
Assertion Contradicted
Flexport is the only top-100 freight forwarder founded after the web browser
“We're the only one founded, only one in the top hundred in the world founded after the web browser was invented.”
Assertion Partly supported
China shipping volumes plunged 60% before surging upon U.S. tariff relief
“Volumes from China collapsed, 60% down when, on April ninth, the day the duties hit, stayed down for five weeks, and then as soon as he relaxed, as soon as they, the Trump administration relaxed the duties on China to 30% instead of one 45, it surged to 80% ab…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Petersen crashed Y Combinator sessions with his brother before founding Flexport
“Y Combinator at that time did not have great security, so I would just go with him to all the Y Combinator Sessions and just said, like, acted like I was part of his company, even though I kind of was.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Flexport automates or outsources 92% of standard ocean freight steps
“So we're now on like a freight, just a standard plain vanilla ocean container from any port in Asia to anywhere in the U S inland, all the way to destination. We break it down to about a 108 steps that have to be completed. And 92% of those are done either by …”
Assertion Partly supported
Flexport reached profitability in 2022 as revenue peaked at $3.8 billion
“Like, we were, we turned profitable in twenty-twenty-two. Our revenue peaked at 3.8 billion because the price of freight was so high.”
Assertion Partly supported
Flexport flew 500 million PPE items on 88 passenger planes during COVID
“So we got all of this, we got 80, we did 88, I think it was 8788 passenger planes full of Masks in the overhead compartments in every seat, obviously the belly, and we just, we flew five hundred million masks and other object, other PPE items in for US Hospita…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Flexport's Net Promoter Score collapsed from the 70s to 17 during COVID
“Our net promoter score, like, was always in the seventies, which is a great, good metric for customer satisfaction, and that, like, collapsed. I forgot how, got to, like, 17 at one point.”
Prediction Held up
Petersen predicts U.S. crackdown on foreign shell companies importing goods directly
“I think they're going to crack down on that. I think they're going to shut down that.”
Assertion Supported
U.S. Department of Justice ranks customs fraud as its second white-collar priority
“Guarantee you, like, you are reliable for that. Like, as a warning, look at the camera. UF. CBP DOJ has announced as their number two priority in white collar crime division of the Department of Justice is customs fraud. Healthcare fraud is number one, and the…”
Assertion Partly supported
Over $7 billion in eligible U.S. customs duty drawbacks goes unclaimed annually
“And so every year in the United States, seven billion goes unclaimed. And that was pre these new tariffs. So it's presumably much higher.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Flexport aims to cut global shipping costs by 5% to 10%
“Actually, I think we can lower the cost of shipping anything by five to 10%.”
Assertion Supported
Petersen: Ocean shipping manifests are public records in nearly 20 countries
“Shipping manifests for ocean freighter public record, and it has a lot of really interesting data on it. The public record in the US, we've since learned in like over almost 20 countries that you can get the shipping manifest data.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Viral Apple leak drove ImportGenius to $50K monthly revenue
“We got within a week, we were doing like 50,000 dollars in monthly revenue. Like all of a sudden, you know, from zero to 50,000 in a couple of weeks.”
Assertion Supported
China-to-US ocean container shipping costs dropped to $600 in 2016
“You could ship a container from China to the U.S. For, our cost was like 600 dollars. Normal long run average about 2000. Today, I didn't check the price this morning, but it's probably four or 5000 right now. And the peak COVID was, you know, famously got to …”
Assertion Supported
Half of global air freight flies in the bellies of passenger planes
“About 50% of the world's air freight travel, we do air freight too, not ocean freight and about 50% of the world's air freight flies in the belly of passenger planes.”
Assertion Supported
Flexport handles approximately 0.1% of global containerized trade
“We're only about .one percent of global trade in the containerized, in the world, in the domain in which we play.”
Assertion Supported
Flexport participated in Paul Graham's final Y Combinator batch
“Yeah, really lucky that I, not only was the last batch, but he announced it mid-batch, so you didn't take it for granted that you were getting this time with Paul.”