The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mauboussin: NBA outcomes rely on skill; hockey and baseball involve luck
“The NBA is the sport that's furthest from randomness, furthest from pure luck configuration, and sports like actually ice hockey and baseball are actually quite much closer to being random.”
Mauboussin: Corporate sales growth is more persistent and predictable than earnings
“In corporate performance, two measures that are very common for people to look at are Sales growth rates and earnings growth rates. And it turns out that sales growth rates are a lot more persistent. So you might say more indicative of some sort of underlying …”
Mauboussin: US per capita daily energy usage dwarfs 100W biological baseline
“If you plot humans on that mass metabolic rate scale humans should use about a hundred watts a day. So, you know, what it takes to sustain your basic metabolic rate, what it takes to sustain you is about what it takes to power of light bulb, right? But it turn…”
Mauboussin: Cities scale sublinearly in infrastructure, but superlinearly in patents and crime
“If you look at cities of different sizes, as they get larger, they tend to use the physical infrastructure more efficiently. So you need fewer, you know, miles per road per person or Distance of pipes and electric wires and so forth, right? So cities like larg…”
Mauboussin: Kahneman Noise Study Found 40% to 60% Decision Variance
“And they first went to their managers and they said, Hey, you know how much variance do you expect in these outcomes? Right? Again, playing the same way, same software and so forth. And the manager said, you know, a priority, you know, five to 10% variance. So…”