The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kunal Shah: India's Per Capita Income Growth Will Never Match China's
“And therefore, a lot of Western markets love to come to India and say, oh, India is the next China. It's not, because our per capita income is never going to beat and grow like China, because before China started becoming affluent, 96% of Chinese urban women w…”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 33:47 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: 80% to 85% of Indian retail investors come from merchant communities
“I would go to the extent of saying that 80, 85% of people who are having more than 200 dollars of investment in any of these assets are people from this community.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 11:31 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shah: Future SaaS companies will offer free software and monetize via fintech
“I believe the future of SaaS companies is going to be that where the next SaaS company will just say, oh, just use our tool for free. But by the way, we'll charge you and cross sell you some lending, some loans, some technology, some value added services which…”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 26:31 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: Less than 6% of urban Indian women have independent income
“Less than six percent of urban Indian women have financial income of their own.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 32:59 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: No SaaS company makes over $10M ARR from Indian businesses
“I wouldn't be able to find one company that makes more than 10 dollars, ten million dollars annual revenue by selling software to Indian businesses.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 38:19 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Contradicted
Shah is the only Indian unicorn founder with a humanities background
“India has hundred unicorns. I would go on to say that I'm the only founder in the hundred unicorns, which has a humanities background. Everybody else is STEM.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 43:37 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Amazon's India GMV matches a small European nation
“The total GMV that Amazon would make in India would easily be done by a small European nation after being here for like maybe seven, eight years that they have spent over here because the people who can spend just do not exist.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 53:01 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Several Indian wedding photographers generate over $10M in revenue
“There are enough wedding photographers, I know, who make more than ten million dollars of revenue.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 1:11:25 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kunal Shah: Future hiring will reward experiences per year over tenure
“Historically, people were hired for years of experience. I think in future, people will be hired for experiences per year.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 2:12:29 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2027
Kunal Shah: Elon Musk will likely create five or six $500B+ companies
“Elon is going to probably have, I don't know, five, five hundred billion dollar plus companies, maybe six.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 2:13:49 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Contradicted
Kunal Shah: 95% of Financial Products in India Are Bought by Men
“Another interesting thing is 95% of all financial products in India are bought by men.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 33:22 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Indian retail data shows living room margins are 3x bedroom margins
“I asked her to check. Can you check if the gross margin on all products sold for living room Is a lot more than the gross margin of all products sold for the bedroom. And nobody had ever analyzed data like that in retail ever. Because it's like kitchen and sof…”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 1:03:52 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Gujarati and Jewish communities provide low-interest intra-community loans
“One of the things I have noticed in Gujarati community is that just like Jewish community is that they offer significantly lower interest rate to people in their community because banks are less likely to underwrite.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 5:56 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: BSE founder Premchand Roychand likely holds record for largest trade
“His name is Preenchan Roychan. He's the founder of Bombay Stock Exchange, and very few people in India know about this guy. The reason people don't know about this guy because he once upon a time was the richest guy in India. He still probably holds the Guinne…”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 7:31 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Only 30 to 35 million people in India invest in financial assets
“India has, India is a very large country, but the total number of people who have invested in any kind of asset stock, mutual funds, any of that is around 30,000,030, thirty-five million.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 11:18 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: 80% to 85% of Bollywood revenue comes from 10 to 15 people
“I would say 80, 85% of Bollywood revenue comes from like 10, 15 people.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 28:09 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Contradicted
Shah: 80% to 83% of Indian suitcases are bought for weddings
“80 to 83% of all suitcases in India are bought for weddings.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 45:20 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Supported
Shah: Apple privacy changes hurt social media by reducing information asymmetry
“A lot of social media stock market tanked and revenue tanked when Apple announced a way to not be able to keep more information asymmetry, and boom, you can't predict many things about people, and therefore your revenue Well, tank because you can't predict th…”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 1:55:08 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
Assertion Supported
Shah: India is the world's largest recipient of inward remittances
“India is the largest market which sends money back to India amongst all markets that does remittance. Indians remit the highest amount of money back to their family. Then it comes to Mexico and others.”
Kunal Shah Dec 27, 2022 ▶ 1:11:13 Best of 2022: Conversations of the Year
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shah: Living room renovations generate 70-80% of revenue for advised startup
“And I told this insight to a home renovation company. I told them, don't keep saying home renovation, launch a product line, which is living room renovation. And today, 70, 80% of that revenue for them is living room renovation.”
Kunal Shah Jun 28, 2022 ▶ 1:04:51 Kunal Shah: Core Human Motivations
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