The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wolfe: Physical reactions will bottleneck AI-driven scientific breakthroughs
“So, I definitely think that there will be this recursive improvement, but you're still going back to being rate limited by time and biological or chemical reactions. You still need to instantiate this into a physical experiment. And so you can model and simula…”
Wolfe: Much of VC and PE 'dry powder' is actually reserved 'wet powder'
“I think there's a ton of dry powder in venture capital and private equity, but a lot of it I call wet powder, and Because this money is basically reserved for companies and people don't realize.”
Wolfe: Psychology drives 90% of Lux Capital's successes and 99% of problems
“All that's important, but what really matters is understanding human nature and psychology, and so, 90% of our successes and 99% of our problems in our companies are us playing armchair psychologist and trying to diagnose, why is this team not effective?”
Wolfe: Only a dozen elite scientists generate America's deep-tech startup diaspora
“And there's probably a dozen such scientists in the war in the country. Where that you in the US where you can go and find these people and the postdocs and where they sort of, ah, traverse to and find that diaspora and develop relationships with them, stay cl…”
Wolfe: Satellite imagery will commoditize while AI data processing captures the value
“All the imagery that's going to be coming off of these satellites is going to be commoditized, and the real value is going to be the processing of that using artificial intelligence and machine learning to look at different spaces over different times to make …”
Wolfe: Disreputable advisory board members signal a startup CEO's poor judgment
“But then I see an advisory board with one or two people, and for me, these are, like, red flag people. They're, like, total BS scientists or promoters or, like, authors that I think are full of it, and I just, like, shake my head, and to me, it's a It's a sign…”
Wolfe: Technological progress follows inevitable directional vectors independent of specific actors
“If you look at a directional arrow of progress in energy, you went from carbohydrates to hydrocarbons to uranium, and the undeniable arrow of progress there was more and more energy density per unit of raw material. When you discover the directional arrow of p…”
Wolfe: Lux Capital's unanimous consensus investments have typically been very wrong
“And so, when the team has total consensus, we typically make an investment, and we've typically been very wrong.”
Wolfe: Great entrepreneurs prove short sellers wrong rather than banning them
“You know, you've got similarly, the best entrepreneurs, when short sellers are like, you know, saying something, they don't want to ban short selling. They don't want short sellers to be arrested. They just prove them wrong.”
Wolfe: Behavioral discipline is the only persistent investing advantage left
“So informational advantage, hard, analytical advantage, brilliant people combined with brilliant technology, really hard, and then it goes into this last one, which is the behavioral, and that, to me,
Is the persistent thing.”
Wolfe: Personal beliefs stem from close peers, not independent reasoning
“You may think you think the things you think because you analyzed and you reasoned or whatever, but no, the reason you think the thing you think is because of the five or six most important people around you. And they sort of believe something and you believe …”
Wolfe: Early-stage startup genius is notoriously hard to distinguish from fraud
“Now, it's very hard in the early nascent embryonic stages of a business to really, and I'm being intellectually honest here, know if somebody is going to be an absolute genius or a total fraud. Because the best storytellers are also the best con men, or women,…”
Wolfe: Startup risk and enterprise value operate like the laws of thermodynamics
“In fact, I always think of this like the first law of thermodynamics, that energy is not created or destroyed. Risk and value themselves are just changing form. And every time that you can kill a risk, subsequent value gets created because a later investor arg…”
Wolfe: The directional arrow of computing progress is increasing physical intimacy
“The undeniable arrow of progress, that directional trend is more and more intimacy.”
Wolfe: VCs must privately anticipate failure while publicly cheerleading their startups
“Venture, by definition, is a cheerleader business. You're optimist. You're promoting the future. You're supporting companies who, against all odds, are likely to fail, and you know, you're cheering them on. But I think internally and privately, you have to ant…”
Wolfe: Viewing data algorithms cannot crack the recipe for hit shows
“They've put a lot of money into this, but it hasn't yielded the recipe maker for, like, the next perfect show, and oftentimes the thing that you want to see is almost something that's orthogonal from what you've been watching.”
Wolfe: Spotting deprioritized back-page news stories creates an informational edge
“I like to know what the editor put on C-Twenty-two, That's not as visible on the website, because there's meta information that the editor is saying, this is not important to be on the front page, but if I disagree, and I think that there's a magnitude of info…”
Wolfe: In-Person Human Interactions Will Become Increasingly Scarce and Valuable
“Your reactions right now, I might say something, and you might say, ah, and maybe you actually thought it was profound, or maybe you're like, ah, this is not interesting at all, but there's something authentic, right, about this, and we are reading each other,…”
Wolfe: The most important future companies lack historical precedents
“You have no prior comps that you can look at because the most important companies that are going to exist never existed before.”
Wolfe: Venture capital is highly inefficient because the universe is unknown
“In venture capital, it's a really inefficient market because there is no known universe. You and I could be talking in a private room, and we could decide that we're going to start up a company tomorrow, and nobody else knows that information.”
Wolfe: Founders who speak over their teammates in pitches show poor leadership
“If somebody is there with three people presenting to us, and they do all the talking, and they are talking for the other people, it's usually not a great sign. If somebody sort of steps back and starts lauding, let's say a CEO is the founder, and they turn to …”
Wolfe: Persuasion tactics from Cialdini, Munger, and Kahneman fail on young kids
“You can use every tactic that Robert Cialdini has come up with, and every tactic from Munger, and every behavioral psychology thing you've learned from Kahneman, and you still get tantrums and crying and dogmatic, you know, intransigent kids”
Wolfe: Children win negotiations through a willingness to publicly embarrass parents
“They're not using tactics of like, you know, I know that you know, and just like a willingness to totally embarrass you in public and scream and throw a tantrum. And by the way, when they do those things, they do them because it works.”
Wolfe: Formally recording deal judgments is essential to prevent hindsight bias
“The process of recording people's judgments and perceptions and observations at each deal is really important. Because what we observed before we started doing this in a very formal way was that people had very selective memory. They would say, oh yeah, no, I …”