The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2025
Calacanis: US rules will let non-accredited gig workers invest in startups
“We're going to see some regulation in the United States where people are going to be able to be sophisticated investors, In other words, maybe they don't have the accreditation benchmark of whatever it is, a 152 100,000 a year in revenue of, in you know, incom…”
Jason Calacanis Apr 14, 2020 ▶ 53:32 #81 Jason Calacanis: Intelligent Risk
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Masayoshi Son will deliver very good returns for LPs
“Masayoshi-san is the last person in, and I think he'll ultimately wind up looking smart, because he picked some good companies, and I think he'll ultimately wind up having a very good return for his LPs”
Jason Calacanis Apr 14, 2020 ▶ 48:42 #81 Jason Calacanis: Intelligent Risk
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: No-code tools will enable 20% of people to build products
“I think we're going to see the pool of people who can build a product go from like, call it low single digits, four or five percent of the country. Or even the world, young people starting companies, old people starting companies, I think it's going to grow to…”
Jason Calacanis Apr 14, 2020 ▶ 51:00 #81 Jason Calacanis: Intelligent Risk
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Probable He Hits Another 300x to 1,000x Return
“Now, will I ever hit another one? It's probable that I will not. But will I hit another 300 X, 500 X, 1000 X? It's probable I will if I keep up at this pace.”
Jason Calacanis Apr 14, 2020 ▶ 12:13 #81 Jason Calacanis: Intelligent Risk
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