why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2025
Calacanis: US rules will let non-accredited gig workers invest in startups
“We're going to see some regulation in the United States where people are going to be able to be sophisticated investors, In other words, maybe they don't have the accreditation benchmark of whatever it is, a 152 100,000 a year in revenue of, in you know, incom…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis was invited to Molly Bloom's celebrity poker games in Los Angeles
“I was invited to all the Molly, Molly's games in LA, because I was living there at the time, and she used to invite me to all these games, and be like, at the Four Seasons, oh, Leo's here, and Toby's here, and they really want to see you, and I was like, they …”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Asana Has Built a Much Bigger Business Than Basecamp
“I forgot the name of it because it's no longer the biggest player in that space. Like there's other people like Asana who've built like much bigger businesses, but you know, they decided they wanted to build a profitable lifestyle business.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Calacanis predicts Masayoshi Son will deliver very good returns for LPs
“Masayoshi-san is the last person in, and I think he'll ultimately wind up looking smart, because he picked some good companies, and I think he'll ultimately wind up having a very good return for his LPs”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: No-code tools will enable 20% of people to build products
“I think we're going to see the pool of people who can build a product go from like, call it low single digits, four or five percent of the country. Or even the world, young people starting companies, old people starting companies, I think it's going to grow to…”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Uber Seed Round Paid Off 4,000x to 5,000x
“So an outlier like an Uber, for the people who are in the seed round, paid off somewhere in the range of 4000 to 5000 X, not percent, X.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Probable He Hits Another 300x to 1,000x Return
“Now, will I ever hit another one? It's probable that I will not. But will I hit another 300 X, 500 X, 1000 X? It's probable I will if I keep up at this pace.”
Assertion Partly supported
Calacanis: 70% to 80% of Angel Investments Go to Zero
“70, 80% of these investments go to zero.”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Three of 21 Angel Investors Backed Uber at Open Angel Forum
“Uber pitched out one of those, and three of the 21 people at that event invested.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Calacanis: Launch invested $25M with a 12-person team last year
“Our small little investment firm called Launch, which has 12 people, and we put twenty-five million to work last year”