The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Garry Tan: Competitors offering double cash cannot match Y Combinator's success
“There are clones of YC right now that give like twice as much money, for instance, but I don't think that they're going to see this level of success because they're not going to have As earnest people who become as formidable around you.”
Garry Tan: Sub-15-person startups reaching $100M revenue will be common by 2027
“I think we are seeing companies that in the next year or two will get to 50, a hundred million dollars a year in revenue.
really with under, you know, maybe 10 people, maybe 15 people tops.
and so that was relatively rare, and my prediction would be this bec…”
Tan: Social unrest will occur if AI benefits bypass majority of people
“In reaction to, you know, the nature of work changing that would be the outcome that, you know, the majority of people, if not all people, like, see the benefit in some sort of direct way, and if we don't do that, then there will be unrest.”
Tan: Humans will talk directly to superintelligent AI entities
“Like, we're going to have these, you know, basically super intelligent entities that we talk to.”
Garry Tan: AI reasoning models will drive biotech breakthroughs within a year
“Like, if only by applying, you know, dollars to energy that then goes into these models, will there be, ah, real breakthroughs in, you know, biological sciences, like being able to do new processes or come to a deeper understanding of you know, whether it's, a…”
Garry Tan: Every major AI lab will release computer-use agent capabilities
“What Anthropic is doing with computer use is, you know, I think that you know, what I've heard is basically every major lab is probably going to need to release something like that, whether it's an API the way Anthropic has, or literally built into this you kn…”
Tan: China will likely rely on a single, centrally controlled ASI
“That society probably, you know, unless there's other changes there, like that's, you can sort of count on a single, ah, artificial super intelligence, like sort of setting the, how everything works over there.”
Garry Tan: AI passing the Turing test will jump to 30% this year
“I think in a lot of domains, and this is sort of the year where, like, Maybe there's, like, five or 10% of things that, like, it's, you know, sort of hitting the Turing test and, you know, really satisfying that, but, you know, I think maybe this is a year whe…”
Garry Tan: AI infrastructure demand will scale to the Manhattan Project's level
“I mean, NVIDIA just, you know, has an out and out. Like, for now, they're just so far ahead of everyone else. I mean, it can't last forever, but I think that, you know, the demand for building the infrastructure for intelligence in society is going to be absol…”