The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gil: Over half of biology research in top journals is not reproducible
“If you look at it, about half or more than half of all biology research in top journals is not reproducible.”
Gil: Crash data shows children only need car seats until age two
“If you actually look at crash data, Real data, and people have now reproduced this across multiple countries, multiple time periods, it's the age of two. So for six extra years, we keep people in booster seats and car seats, at least against the data, right?”
Gil: 80% to 90% of AI market cap is in the Bay Area
“If you look at AI, it's like, 80 to 90% of the market cap is all in the Bay Area.”
Gil: Protocols to create viruses are already public without AI
“The protocols for cloning and PCR and all this, it's all on the internet. It's all posted by major labs. It's in all the textbooks. Like that's not new knowledge that people can't just go and do right now if they really wanted to.”
Gil: Bay Area represents 25% of global private tech wealth creation
“Traditionally the U.S. Has been about half of that globally. The Bay Area has been about half of that. So, 25% of all private technology wealth creation happens in one place, right? In one city. If you add in New York and L.A., then you're at like 40% of the w…”
Gil: Major open-source technologies historically require giant corporate backers
“Almost every single major open source company has had a giant, ah, institutional backer. IBM was the biggest funder of Linux in the nineties as a counterbalance to Microsoft. And the biggest funders of all the open source browsers are Apple and Google with Web…”
Gil: Stanford, MIT, and Harvard dominate outsized startup founder outcomes
“We went, my team went back and we looked at where do all the startup founders come out of school-wise, and three schools dominate by far in terms of big outside outcomes. Stanford is number one by far, and then MIT and Harvard.”
Gil: Anduril achieved fastest DoD program of record since Korean War
“And I think Anderle did their first program of record in something like three and a half years, so it was remarkably fast. I think it was the fastest program of record since the Korean War or something, which is super impressive.”