The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 47 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kahneman: People prioritize narrative life satisfaction over real-time emotional happiness
“What people really want in their life is they don't seem to care about how happy they'll be. They seem to want to be satisfied with their life. They seem to want to have a good story about their life.”
Kahneman: Anyone highly optimistic about behavior change is deluded
“I think changing behavior is extremely difficult. There are a few tips and, you know, a few guidelines about how to do that, but anybody who is very optimistic about changing behavior is just deluded. It's hard to change other people's behavior. It's very hard…”
Kahneman: Independent clear thinking is nearly impossible due to social belief adoption
“I would say that independent, clear thinking is, to a first approximation, impossible. I mean, in the sense that, you know, we believe in things most of the time, not because we have good reasons to believe them. If you ask me for reasons, I'll explain you. I'…”
Kahneman: Replacing human judgment with standardized algorithms consistently produces better decisions
“If you really want to improve the quality of decision making, use algorithms. I mean, whenever, wherever you can if you can replace judgments by rules and algorithms, they'll do better.”
Kahneman: Organizational judgment is fixable through procedures; individual judgment resists change
“I'm much more hopeful about organizations, because organizations think more slowly, and they have procedures for thinking, and so you can control the procedures. Individual judgment is really hard to fix. Not impossible.”
Kahneman: Defeat absurd negotiation anchors by making a scene and refusing them
“So, when I was teaching negotiations, I would say somebody does that to you, comes up with a number that's absurd. I would say, lose your temper. Make a scene. Say, I will not start the conversation from that number. It's an absurd number. I don't want to. Let…”
Kahneman: Independent clear thinking is virtually impossible
“Emotions get in the way, and I would say that independent clear thinking Is, to first approximation, impossible. I mean, in the sense that, you know, we believe in things most of the time, not because we have good reasons to believe them. If you ask me for rea…”
Kahneman: Algorithms improve decisions better than human judgment
“If you really want to improve the quality of decision making, use algorithms. I mean, whenever, wherever you can if you can replace judgments by rules and algorithms, they'll do better. Now, there's big social costs to trusting, allowing algorithms to make dec…”
Kahneman: Billionaires accumulate money as a subjective proxy for their competence
“You look at all those people, all those billionaires working their heads off, and they're clearly not doing this because they need more money. They're trying to get more money, and they're trying to get more money because that would be an indication that they'…”
Kahneman: Anyone optimistic about easily changing human behavior is completely deluded
“I think changing behavior is extremely difficult. There are a few tips and, you know, a few guidelines about how to do that, but anybody who is very optimistic about changing behavior is just deluded. It's hard to change other people's behavior. It's very hard…”
Kahneman: Policy reforms fail because potential losers fight harder than winners
“And it turns out that you can really expect losers, potential losers, to fight a lot harder than potential winners. And that's the reason that reforms so frequently fail, and that when they succeed, they're almost always way more expensive than anticipated, an…”
Kahneman: People adopt beliefs by trusting others, not through objective reasoning
“We believe in things most of the time, not because we have good reasons to believe them. If you ask me for reasons, I'll explain you. I'll always find a reason, but the reasons are not the causes of our beliefs. We have beliefs because mostly we believe in som…”
Kahneman: Replacing human judgment with algorithms strictly improves decision quality
“If you really want to improve the quality of decision making, use algorithms. I mean, whenever, wherever you can if you can replace judgments by rules and algorithms, they'll do better.”
Kahneman: Organizations can improve decision-making, but individual self-correction usually fails
“So in general, you know, more educated people make better judgments, I think, on average, but people decide I'm going to make better judgments. I don't think that's very hopeful. I'm much more hopeful about organizations, because organizations think more slowl…”
Kahneman: People prefer leaders who are highly intuitive and overconfident
“I think it's pretty clear that people prefer leaders who are intuitive and who are overconfident. Leaders who deliberate too much are viewed with suspicion, you know.”
Kahneman: Psychologists are wildly overconfident about hypotheses due to intuition calibration errors
“Psychologists live in a, when they hook up their hypotheses, they're in a Within subject situation, but then they make guesses about what will happen between subjects, and they're completely lost between clear intuitions and strong intuition. We have no way of…”
Kahneman: Drive behavior change by reducing friction rather than increasing motivation
“Kurt Lewin's insight was that this is not what you should do. You should actually work on the restraining forces and try to make them weaker, and that's a beautiful point, and he showed, he had that image that, you know, I've had since I was an undergraduate, …”
Kahneman: Policy reforms fail because potential losers fight harder than potential winners
“And it turns out that you can really expect losers, potential losers, to fight a lot harder than potential winners. And that's the reason that we form so frequently fair, and that when they succeed, they're almost always way more expensive than anticipated, an…”
Kahneman: Delay intuitive judgment until evaluating options across separate independent dimensions
“That when you are making decisions, you should think of options as if they were candidates. So you should break, break it up into dimensions, evaluate each dimension separately, then look at the profile, and the key is, delay your intuition. Don't try to form …”
Kahneman: Moving first in negotiations creates a psychological advantage via anchoring
“The person who moves first in a negotiation has an advantage. Because it, the first number changes everybody's view of what is considered plausible. So it moves things in that direction.”
Kahneman: Intuitive human predictions systematically fail to account for statistical regression
“The best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean.”
Kahneman: Premortems legitimize and reward dissent in group decision-making
“It's beautiful because when people are coming close to a decision, it becomes Difficult to raise doubts or to raise questions. People who are slowing the group down when the group is nearing a decision are procedures really, you know, it's annoying, you know, …”
Kahneman: Evaluate dimensions separately before trusting intuitive judgments
“That when you are making decisions, you should think of options as if they were candidates. So you should break, break it up into dimensions, evaluate each dimension separately, then look at the profile, and the key is, delay your intuition. Don't try to form …”
Kahneman: Happiness is social; life satisfaction stems from conventional success
“Happiness is mostly social. It's, you know, it's being with people you love. Who love you back. That's a lot of what happiness is. Life satisfaction is much more conventional. It's to be successful. And, you know, so it's money, education, prestige, that sort …”
Kahneman: Change behavior by weakening restraining forces rather than pushing harder
“And what we tend to do when we want to move people from A to B is we push them. We add to the driving forces. And Kurt Lewin's insight was that this is not what you should do. You should actually work on the restraining forces and try to make them weaker.”
Kahneman: Delaying intuition until evaluating separate dimensions produces better decisions
“That when you are making decisions, you should think of options as if they were candidates. So you should break, break it up into dimensions, evaluate each dimension separately, then look at the profile, and the key is, delay your intuition. Don't try to form …”
Kahneman: Group decision leaders must actively protect dissenters to enable disagreement
“In, in general, you know, if you are, if you're the head of a group that makes decisions, one of your missions would be to protect the dissenters. Because they're very valuable, and you should make it painless to dissent, or as painless as possible, because it…”
Kahneman: The first mover in negotiations holds a distinct anchoring advantage
“The person who moves first in a negotiation has an advantage. Because it, the first number changes everybody's view of what is considered plausible. So it moves things in that direction.”
Kahneman: Optimal statistical predictions are always less extreme than intuitive impressions
“The best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean, but statistics is statistics, and in statistics, things are less extreme”
Kahneman: Negotiation is about understanding the counterpart, not applying pressure
“That negotiation is not about trying to convince the other guy. It's about trying to understand them. So again, it's slowing yourself down, it's not doing what comes naturally, because trying to convince them is applying pressure. Arguments, promises, and thre…”
Kahneman: Organizations reject decision-tracking tools that threaten leaders with retrospective embarrassment
“Certainly anything that threatens the leader is not going to be adopted, and leaders may not want something that threatened their subordinates either. People are really very worried about embarrassment.”
Kahneman: Wherever human judgment is present, there is more noise than expected
“So wherever our rule is that wherever there is judgment, there is noise and more of it than you think.”
Kahneman: Billionaires treat earning money as a scorecard for professional competence
“You look at all those people, all those billionaires working their heads off, and they're clearly not doing this because they need more money. They're trying to get more money, and they're trying to get more money because that will be an indication that they'r…”
Kahneman: People mistakenly attribute situational behavior to internal personality traits
“Behaviors don't necessarily reflect the personality, but behaviors have a lot to do with the situation. And so if people behave in strange ways, look at the situation they're in, and what are the pressures in the situation that make them act as well. So there …”
Kahneman: Judgment is informal measurement using the mind, creating inherent variability
“We speak of judgment as measurement, but it's measurement where the measuring instrument is your mind, but you do it informally. And because you do it informally, people are going to, are not necessarily going to agree, so wherever we say it's a matter for jud…”
Kahneman: The public prefers overconfident, intuitive leaders over careful, deliberative ones
“I think it's pretty clear that people prefer leaders who are intuitive and who are overconfident. Leaders who deliberate too much are viewed with suspicion, you know.”
Kahneman: Writing down stances before meetings prevents premature convergence and groupthink
“That when you're going to be discussing a topic, and it's known in advance, and people are in sense of material to think about the topic, that you may want them to write down their decision, the decision they are in favor of, before the discussion starts. That…”
Kahneman: Effective decision journals must record arguments and alternatives considered
“You would want to say what were the main arguments, pro and con? What were the alternatives that were considered? No, it doesn't have to be very detailed, but it should be enough so that you can come later and debrief yourself.”
Kahneman: Organizations systemically reject decision-tracking tools that risk embarrassing their leaders
“Certainly anything that threatens the leader is not going to be adopted, and leaders may not want something that threatened their subordinates either. People are really very worried about embarrassment.”
Kahneman: Human behavior is driven by situations, not just personality traits
“Behaviors don't necessarily reflect the personality, but behaviors have a lot to do with the situation.”
Kahneman: Unstructured evaluation drives people to confirm their quick initial impressions
“Very quickly you form an impression, and then you spend most of your time confirming it, instead of collecting evidence. And so, if accidentally your impression was in the wrong direction, you're going to confirm it, and you don't give yourself a chance to cor…”
Kahneman: Spotting flawed judgment is easier than recognizing good judgment
“So it's harder to recognize very good judgment, but it's fairly easy to see, you know, what goes wrong, and there are quite a few ways for judgment to go wrong.”
Kahneman: Premortems legitimize team dissent and reveal critical decision loopholes
“And the premortem legitimizes that sort of dissent and that sort of doubt. Not only legitimizes it, you know, it rewards it. And so that's a very good idea. I don't, you know, I don't think that it's going to prevent people from making mistakes, big mistakes, …”
Kahneman: Writing decisions down before meetings prevents rapid group convergence
“When you're going to be discussing a topic, and it's known in advance, and people have been sent some material to think about the topic, that you may want them to write down their decision, the decision they are in favor of, before the discussion starts. That …”
Kahneman: Decision-makers should track decisions despite widespread resistance to retrospective accountability
“I would advise people who make a lot of decisions to keep track. Their decisions and of how they turned out. So that later you can come and evaluate your procedures and see whether there is anything that is in common with those decisions that turned out well a…”
Kahneman: Leaders Must Protect Dissenters and Make Dissent Painless
“In, in general, you know, if you are the head of a group that makes decisions, one of your missions would be to protect the dissenters, because they're very valuable, and You should make it painless to be sent, or as painless as possible, because it's hard to …”
Kahneman: Effective decision journals record core pros, cons, and considered alternatives
“You would want to say, what were the main arguments, pro and con? What were the alternatives that were considered? You know, it doesn't have to be very detailed. But it should be enough so that you can come later and debrief yourself.”