The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cubitt: Husband-and-wife founding teams rarely work out in venture-backed startups
“Rarely do husband-wife teams work out for a number of reasons, but not least of which, in our view anyway, you know, let's say that the wife is the CEO and the husband is the CTO or the CFO, You know, their direct reports are rarely gonna, you know, not gonna …”
Cubitt: Consistently Picking Seed-Stage Winners Is Nearly Impossible
“So our view is that it's nearly impossible to pick winners at the seed stage. There's a lot of memory, I guess you'd say, and hard won battles that, that help guide our decision. But at the end of the day, We are humble enough to know that it's impossible to p…”
Cubitt: Only Tier-One Venture Firms Can Rely on Power-Law Returns
“Unless you're a, I'm going to call it a tier one firm who has a history of getting amazing deal flow from the best founders, it's really tough to live on the power law and expect to get a unicorn in every fund.”
Cubitt: Even equity splits fail because future dilution destroys founder motivation
“I don't actually. And so, and the reason is that at the earliest stages, you have to sort of forward look the cap table. In other words, I'm going to raise a seed and I'm going to get 20% dilution to Typically the Series A, another 20 to 30% dilution, and so o…”
Cubitt: VCs Taking Excessive Equity Destroy Founder Alignment
“At the same time, the founding team needs to have enough equity to make it worth their while. And I think some VCs have it upside down where they say, well, we're going to own all this business, but then you've lost alignment of your founder. And if you lose y…”
Cubitt: Marketing and sales trump ideas and technology all day long
“No question that marketing and sales trump ideas and technology all day long.”
Cubitt: Hands-on VC work with struggling startups can preserve half the fund
“And we think that the economics of that provide us with a 50 or a hundred percent of AUM payback. And what I mean by that is, let's say you have a hundred million dollar fund and you have a company that you've put ten million dollars in. And if you walk away, …”
Cubitt: Replacing a startup CEO rarely turns out well
“We can make a change at the CEO level on occasion. Not my favorite thing to do because I think it rarely turns out well, but there are things we can do to right the ship.”
Cubitt: Timing and market matter more than the CEO for startup success
“The most successful companies are highly correlated with timing, first of all. So are you in a bear market or a bull market? That's the number one correlation between success and failure in business. Number two correlating success factor is the market that you…”
Cubitt: AI Is Math, Not a Sector, and Useless Without Domain Collision
“AI is not a sector.
AI is math.
AI is an algorithm that's enabled by very fast processors with new ways of thinking about how to analyze big sets of data and now smaller and smaller sets.
But AI in and of itself is not that useful.
But AI combined with a subje…”
Cubitt: COO Role Counterbalances CEO Enthusiasm With Pragmatic Execution
“Yeah, it's critical, right? It's critical in a couple of ways. One, it's the operations person who fulfills on the CEO's vision and dreams and goal, but it's also the right hand person to the CEO, right? So it's the counterbalance of all that enthusiasm and dr…”
Cubitt: Poor founder communication with employees and investors signals startup failure
“So it's the ego needs to be checked at the door problem where you have overzealous founders that, Don't communicate with their employees. They don't build a culture of success and winning. They don't communicate with their investing partners. And you can tell …”
Cubitt: Founders Who Dismiss External Feedback and Prioritize Ego Fail
“And at its core coachability is, is sort of a willingness to be introspective and a willingness to respect feedback, whether it's from the market, from your employees, from your customers, from your investing partners. And so the entrepreneur who Dismisses all…”
Cubitt: Great Founders Absorb Investor Advice but Dictate Their Own Path
“I prefer the ones that take it in consume it and then dictate their own path, not necessarily mine. Cause the fact is, you know, they're qualified to run their business. I'm not, I'm qualified to advise and be a mentor, but I'm not qualified to run their busin…”
Cubitt: Early-stage board meetings should mostly be brainstorming, not formal governance
“I generally think of Early stage board meetings as really brainstorm meetings, not board meetings. The board meeting part, the formal part of the governance is five or 10 minutes, right? It's stock option allocation. It's, you know, strategy around syndicate i…”
Cubitt: Large company boards must be 'nose in, fingers out'
“At some level, later stage companies, it's a very different dynamic. So I'm on a bunch of, or I'm on at least a couple of formal, large, a hundred million dollar plus company boards, and it's a lot more formal. It's a little bit more nose in, fingers out. Actu…”
Cubitt: Real value of board meetings is the CEO's preparation process
“It's the preparation process that is really where the value lies. And in that, that quiet contemplation that the CEO goes through, that's out of the weeds, out of the day to day.”
Cubitt: Founders should take cash off the table at Series B, not Seed
“I think it's probably wrong to assume that you're going to get a secondary at the seed stage every once in a while at a series A or series B, typically a series B. And I think it's prudent for an entrepreneur to take some cash off the table. Generally, you kno…”
Cubitt: Seed-Stage Startups Rarely Have Product-Market Fit
“At the seed stage where we play, rarely do we know we have product market fit. So it's a lot of customer exploration. A lot of talking to customers, some early customer trials, some indications that the product does what it says it's going to do, and we explor…”
Cubitt: Series A Requires Proven Unit Economics Before Series B Scaling
“Going into the Series A, you have to have enough momentum and some early economic ratios, LTV to CAC, for example, to prove that there's a market for your product. And so the Series A investors want to talk to a lot more customers and validate that this thing …”
Cubitt: Founding startup teams rarely finish, and that is appropriate
“Cause it's not always necessarily the team that starts doesn't necessarily finish. In fact, that's most appropriate.”
Cubitt: Top CEOs anticipate changes 6 to 12 months ahead and pivot against consensus
“An A CEO is a, an executive who sees change coming, You know, six, nine, 12 months ahead of everybody else and has the ability to change course in, in the face of opposition from everybody else who is happy with the status quo.”