The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Davis: Any writing advantage humans have over AI won't last long
“I don't think it will be more effective. I mean, I think that, or if it is, it's only because I still have a little lead on AI, but Eh, it ain't gonna last for long.”
Davis: VR and AR will replace smartphones and restore broadsheet-style reading
“It's actually one of the reasons I'm fairly optimistic that whatever replaces this shitty little, you know, five inch rectangle that we all carry around in our pocket, that is a very, very poor way to get information, this tiny little screen. And, you know, wh…”
Davis: The US will only repay its debt by devaluing currency through inflation
“Certainly inflation will have to, the only way we can repay the debts that we've incurred is going to be by, you know, devaluing the currency so we can pay back.”
Davis: Credit ratings reliably predict auto insurance accident risk
“Somebody's credit rating is a great predictor of whether they'll crash their car. Well, because they're responsible and they tend not to cheat.”
Davis: Oppenheimer Will Probably Attract More People to Physics Than STEM Funding
“Oppenheimer will probably draw more people into physics, you know, than STEM funding in high schools will.”
Davis: Grandfather Levered Up on Margin in 1975 After 80% Drawdown
“My grandfather had been living overseas. He was ambassador from 68 to 75 in Switzerland. And he comes home and he's like, this looks great. Now his net worth was down 80%. You know, huge loss but he hadn't experienced it viscerally. So he just came in and he w…”
Davis: Berkshire is managed assuming shareholders have 100% net worth in it
“Berkshire is run with the idea that some, that, that from the very beginning that the people that were invested in Berkshire had a hundred percent of their net worth in Berkshire.”
Davis: Baupost cash allocations have historically averaged 15% to 40%
“The cash, if I remember rightly at Baupost is sort of average between, you know, 15 and 40% for sort of the whole time. I don't think there's ever been a time when it's gone, maybe below 15.”
Davis: Berkshire's charity program made its shares difficult to borrow and short
“Berkshire for many, many years had a charity program where if you owned a share of Berkshire each year, you were given a dollar amount per share that you could assign to any charity of your choice... But In order to be able to do that, you had to own the share…”
Davis details Warren Buffett's five root causes of money manager underperformance
“In our research department, we have a letter that Warren wrote in 1965, I think that, or 66 that lists the reason that he believes most money managers, institutional managers tend to underperform.
And we framed that letter and put it on the wall in the researc…”
Davis: Athletic Brewing is probably worth $1B to $2B
“I would say there is good no alcohol beer the athletic club. I mean, that, by the way, that's a company that probably has got a, probably worth over a billion dollars today or two billion dollars, a couple of guys in Connecticut.”
Davis's father refused to invest in Apple because Steve Jobs wore sandals
“I remember my father telling the story about these hippies in his office at fiduciary trust company, you know, in, in downtown New York, respectable trust bank. And he said, this guy shows up in sandals. In sandals. He couldn't believe it. He said, how can a g…”
Davis: Father Held 30% Cash in 1975, Lagging the Recovery
“My father was 30% cash in 1975. And so the fund dramatically lagged in one of the best market years of a decades. 75 and market went up 30% or something like that. And you know, the fund probably went up 20 because it was a third in cash.”
Davis: Value Managers Gained 9% to 25% During 2000 Market Drop
“In 2000, the market went down nine percent, if I remember right, maybe nine, nine and a half. And it wasn't like, managers like us who had stuck to sort of a discipline, you know, went down two and the market went down nine. It's like we were up nine or 10, yo…”
Davis: Amazon succeeded without creating super-voting share structures
“Amazon never needed that. They didn't create super voting shares where you could own a tiny economic interest.”
Davis: Grandfather grew $100K into $2B and gave 100% to charity
“My grandfather built this fortune. I mean, it was amazing. He started borrowed a 100,000 dollars. When he died, it was eight hundred million. It was held in a trust as long as my grandmother, his wife was alive. And when she died, it was two billion. But a hun…”
Davis: Graham family sold The Washington Post over 7 months without leaks
“The Washington Post evolved. I mean, it was one of the great, great examples in all of corporate history of fiduciary leadership and servant leadership of the Graham family to make the decision to sell the newspaper that it needed to be in safer and better han…”
Davis: NYC pooper-scooper law raised dog-walking earnings to $100/week
“If I had been happy to charge 50 cents a walk that law came into place and I could charge five dollars, 10 dollars. People would pay me to come twice a day. And you know, all of a sudden, you know, I'm making, you know, a hundred bucks a week.”