why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Top-performing VC firms have higher loss rates than lesser firms
“There's a lot of data in the VC industry that actually, interestingly enough, the best firms actually have a higher loss rate, meaning they lose money more frequently than the less.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dixon: By 2025 remote conversations will probably occur in VR
“I think, you know, in 10 years, we'd be probably having this conversation in virtual reality, and we'd be, you know, looking at each other across the room, and it would feel like we're in the same room.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dixon: a16z employs over 100 non-investor operational staff
“We have over a hundred employees who are not investors at our firm, whose sole job it is to help companies do things like recruit employees you know build their, you know, their customers base.”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Traditional public mutual funds are driving late-stage private venture rounds
“It's actually what you, what is happening is firms that are, that historically had been public investors. So for example, Fidelity T. Rowe Price, like a whole Wellington, all of these kind of well-known public market investors. Have now moved to invest in priv…”
Assertion Contradicted
Dixon: VC invests only $10B–$20B yearly, smaller than big tech R&D budgets
“This industry is actually, you know, it gets a lot of attention in the press venture capital, but it's actually a very small industry. So, you know, they're probably, there are a few dozen kind of firms that most people, you know, that, that, that constitute t…”
Assertion Supported
Dixon: The best VC funds lose money on at least half of investments
“The best VC funds lose money at least half the time, which means half of our, If we're doing a good job, half of our investments will fail.”