The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: Claims that AI will produce bioweapons and kill humanity are idiotic
“Personally, like most people in tech, I think the idea that this is all going to kind of produce bioweapons and take over the world and kill us all is just idiotic. Like, I think it's just a bunch of kind of childish logical fallacies within that.”
Evans: OpenAI's weekly active user metric is deliberately misleading
“Now, OpenAI is doing weekly active users, and Sam Waltman was a social media startup founder. He knows this. It's a bullshit number.”
Evans: Opinions on Sam Altman among former colleagues are unanimously negative
“OpenAI Sam Altman is, I was going to say polarizing figure, but actually opinions about him tend to be fairly unanimous and tend to be fairly negative, like everybody who's ever worked with him quit.”
Evans: Tesla is just another Android phone maker in EV market
“What's happening is that cars are becoming Android with no iPhone, and Tesla is just selling, and in that metaphor, Tesla is just another Android phone maker, and they're competing with the whole Chinese industrial policy.”
Evans: AI's impact equals the iPhone, not the Industrial Revolution
“It's funny, my, I suppose my take on AI, controversial take on AI, rather like my controversial take on crypto is being a centrist, in that it seems to me very clear this is like the biggest thing since the iPhone, but I also think it's only the biggest thing …”
Evans: Google's biggest AI threat is users reconsidering default search habits
“The very high level threat to Google is that you have this moment of discontinuity in which everybody resets their prize and reconsiders their defaults.”
Evans: Anthropic's safety studies merely prove models follow rogue prompts
“And that's what these anthropic studies are. They're basically, you tell the machine to say a thing, And then it says it. Like, well you haven't proved anything.”
Evans: Most users cannot distinguish Grok, Claude, Gemini, and DeepSeek in blind tests
“Like it seems to me right now you could do like a double blind test of the same prompt given to Grok, Claude, Gemini Mistral, Deep Seek. Do a double blind test. I bet most people wouldn't be able to tell which is which.”