The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: LLMs currently lack usage-driven network effects
“There's no apparent equivalent in LLMs right now. There's no reason why the LLMs get better because more people use them.”
Evans: For LLMs, variance is bad and originality receives a lower score
“For an LLM, variance is bad. Originality is, is, is a lower score.”
Evans: Apple risks being 'Microsofted' by cloud-based AI models
“There's this sort of question for Apple around, does this actually change the experience of what a smartphone is, what the ecosystem is? Does it end up kind of getting Microsofted, in the sense that you're going to still, for the time being, you're still going…”
Evans: Meta and Amazon want LLMs to become commoditized infrastructure
“What Meta and Amazon want to do is to make LLM's commodity info that sold at cost. This is why Meta made it open source, because they want to make it commodity info that sold at cost, and they differentiate on top with Meta stuff, with Facebook, social, Instag…”
Evans: Kodak died from moving into undifferentiated, low-margin commodities
“The other side of it is that film was this high margin product where they had a bunch of unique intellectual property, and digital cameras are a low margin commodity, where they were competing with the entire consumer electronics industry with no differentiati…”
Evans: Google and Meta's proprietary data provides no LLM training moat
“So I'd actually, I think it's actually the opposite, which is that everyone's kind of using the same data. Which is you need such an enormous amount of generalized text that the amount that Google has or that Meta has is not actually enough to move, to be a ki…”
Evans: Regulating AI as a single category is the wrong abstraction level
“Talking about regulating AI as AI is the wrong level of abstraction. It's like saying we're going to regulate databases, or regulate spreadsheets, or regulate cars.”
Evans: AI model memory functions as switching cost, not network effect
“You have that, the OpenAI and people have been doing memory, where it remembers what else you've asked, but that seems more like a switching cost than a network effect, and also it might be easier for you to just ask it what it knows about you and then tell Cl…”
Evans: Never publish writing if ChatGPT could have generated it
“Now I can just say, is this what ChatGPT would have said? And if the answer is, this is what ChatGPT would have said, then I don't publish it. Not because people can get it from ChatGPT, but because anyone would have said that.”