The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: Kodak was once the best-selling US digital camera vendor
“What actually happens is, once it starts happening, Kodak go all in on digital cameras. At one point, they were the best-selling digital camera vendor in the USA, and if you look at their annual ports at the time, they think this is going to be great, because …”
Evans: Tech will build around AI for 10 to 15 years
“My sort of base case is to say, this is kind of another platform shift, and all the new stuff will be built around this for the next 10 or 15 years, and then there'll be something else.”
Evans: AI labs do not continuously retrain models on live user queries
“They're not retraining the models all the time with the data. So you don't have that kind of runaway effect as, like, continuous flow and more queries produces, you know, better results.”
Evans: ChatGPT dominates consumer app rankings while competitors lag outside top 50
“ChatGPT is at the top of the outstore rank. Gemini bubbles between, like, 50 and a hundred. None of the others are in the top 100. Same in Google Trends. Same in the usage numbers. Same in the revenue.”
Evans: US Surveys Show Only Roughly 10% of People Use LLMs Daily
“You look at survey data, and I did this slide in the last presentation I did of, like, five different surveys from the US from late last year, earlier this year, and it's all roughly the same. It's like something around 10% Give or take three or four percent o…”