why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tech giants will be disrupted by paradigm shifts, not direct competitors
“Their sort of upheaval and downfall will come not from someone being in a garage alone. It will come from someone being in a garage who latches onto the next paradigm shift that makes it impossible for, you know, the powers that be to compete.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The traditional TV bundle will inevitably devolve into an expensive sports-only package
“The long run for TV, for example, the long run is likely that there's
The traditional bundle becomes basically all about sports because sports is better live.
Sports is, is,
Is advertising driven.
And so the business model on that side is going to be differen…”
Prediction Held up
Streaming will eventually cost consumers exactly as much as their old cable bundles
“What's going to happen is people are going to end up paying about the same amount of money every month they do for content today.
There should be paying different people.
And I think that that's going to be the case.
This idea that there's going to be this, yo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The subscription economy will grow through niche breadth, avoiding subscriber fatigue
“People are like, oh, Yeah. How many subscription sites can there be? Like, not everyone can have, like, 50 subscriptions. And no, that's not the outcome. The outcome is breadth. There's gonna be so many niches, and there's so many people out there that, that t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Future job growth will stem from digital micro-businesses, not Big Tech
“And I think those are where the jobs of the future are going to come from. They're not going to come from A Facebook”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ben Thompson predicts music streaming will soon surpass CD-era peak revenues
“It turns out the music industry is actually in fantastic shape, and their revenue has been increasing a lot, and they're actually going to have, they're on pace to have like their best year ever in like the next couple of years, like even more than like the CD…”