The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 58 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kahneman: Human behavior is driven by situations, not just personality traits
“Behaviors don't necessarily reflect the personality, but behaviors have a lot to do with the situation.”
Kahneman: Agents making decisions on behalf of others skip loss aversion
“But there is an interesting result that if you have an agent making decisions on somebody's behalf, that agent doesn't have loss of urge. So that agent sells and buys at the same price, which is the economically rational thing to do.”
Kahneman: Unstructured evaluation drives people to confirm their quick initial impressions
“Very quickly you form an impression, and then you spend most of your time confirming it, instead of collecting evidence. And so, if accidentally your impression was in the wrong direction, you're going to confirm it, and you don't give yourself a chance to cor…”
Kahneman: Spotting flawed judgment is easier than recognizing good judgment
“So it's harder to recognize very good judgment, but it's fairly easy to see, you know, what goes wrong, and there are quite a few ways for judgment to go wrong.”
Kahneman: Premortems legitimize team dissent and reveal critical decision loopholes
“And the premortem legitimizes that sort of dissent and that sort of doubt. Not only legitimizes it, you know, it rewards it. And so that's a very good idea. I don't, you know, I don't think that it's going to prevent people from making mistakes, big mistakes, …”
Kahneman: Writing decisions down before meetings prevents rapid group convergence
“When you're going to be discussing a topic, and it's known in advance, and people have been sent some material to think about the topic, that you may want them to write down their decision, the decision they are in favor of, before the discussion starts. That …”
Kahneman: Decision-makers should track decisions despite widespread resistance to retrospective accountability
“I would advise people who make a lot of decisions to keep track. Their decisions and of how they turned out. So that later you can come and evaluate your procedures and see whether there is anything that is in common with those decisions that turned out well a…”
Kahneman: Leaders Must Protect Dissenters and Make Dissent Painless
“In, in general, you know, if you are the head of a group that makes decisions, one of your missions would be to protect the dissenters, because they're very valuable, and You should make it painless to be sent, or as painless as possible, because it's hard to …”
Kahneman: Consulting clients universally rejected his recommendation to track decision outcomes
“When I suggested that, never went anywhere.”
Kahneman: Effective decision journals record core pros, cons, and considered alternatives
“You would want to say, what were the main arguments, pro and con? What were the alternatives that were considered? You know, it doesn't have to be very detailed. But it should be enough so that you can come later and debrief yourself.”