The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Tan: 50% of YC companies raise Series A, 25% after year 5
“About half of companies that go through YC will end up raising a series A. That's, you know, much higher than any other pre-seed or seed sort of situation that I know of. But about, A quarter of those who raise the Series A, they do it in year five or later.”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 18:59 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Assertion Supported
Garry Tan: Y Combinator's unicorn hit rate increased from 3.5% to 5.5%
“If anything, I think that the unicorn rate has gone up over time. You know 1015 years ago, I think it was closer to maybe three and a half to four percent, and now we're around five and a half percent. Some batches from You know, maybe 2017, 20 18, or, you kno…”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 18:04 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Assertion Supported
Tan: YC startup Camfer used OpenAI o1 to improve airfoil design
“There's a YC company called Camfer that is trying to apply they actually were one of the winners of the recent YC O-one hackathon we hosted with OpenAI, and their winning entry was literally Hooking up a one to airfoil design. So being able to increase the sor…”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 1:04:27 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Assertion Supported
Tan: YC companies raise ~$1B yearly with a 1% acceptance rate
“I think we have about a billion dollars a year in, ah, your funding that comes into YC companies, and that's because, ah, the acceptance rate to get into YC is only one percent.”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 8:15 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Assertion Supported
Tan: Y Combinator receives 70,000 to 80,000 applications per year
“Yeah, I think it's close to 70, 80,000 at this point.”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 8:33 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Assertion Supported
Flexport participated in Paul Graham's final Y Combinator batch
“Yeah, really lucky that I, not only was the last batch, but he announced it mid-batch, so you didn't take it for granted that you were getting this time with Paul.”
Ryan Petersen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 17:45 Ryan Petersen: Building Flexport
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