why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Garry Tan: 60% of serial founders who built recent unicorns are YC alumni
“Did you know that 40, you know, of those 40%, 60% of those people, the people who created unicorns the last 10 years are YC alumni.”
Assertion Supported
Tan: 50% of YC companies raise Series A, 25% after year 5
“About half of companies that go through YC will end up raising a series A. That's, you know, much higher than any other pre-seed or seed sort of situation that I know of. But about, A quarter of those who raise the Series A, they do it in year five or later.”
Assertion Contradicted
Garry Tan: About 2.5% of Y Combinator startups become $10B decacorns
“Yeah, about two and a half percent end up becoming Decacorns sooner or later, so.”
Assertion Supported
Garry Tan: Y Combinator's unicorn hit rate increased from 3.5% to 5.5%
“If anything, I think that the unicorn rate has gone up over time. You know 1015 years ago, I think it was closer to maybe three and a half to four percent, and now we're around five and a half percent. Some batches from You know, maybe 2017, 20 18, or, you kno…”
Assertion Partly supported
Tan: Casetext founder Jake Heller first commercialized GPT-4 in legal
“Garry Tan: He was one of the first people to get access to GPT-IV, and we think of him at YC as the first man on the moon, and that he was the first to successfully commercialize GPT-IV in the legal space.”
Assertion Partly supported
Garry Tan: In full transparency, the median Y Combinator startup still fails
“In full transparency, I mean, probably, you know, the median YC startup still fails, right?”
Assertion Supported
Tan: YC startup Camfer used OpenAI o1 to improve airfoil design
“There's a YC company called Camfer that is trying to apply they actually were one of the winners of the recent YC O-one hackathon we hosted with OpenAI, and their winning entry was literally Hooking up a one to airfoil design. So being able to increase the sor…”
Assertion Supported
Tan: YC companies raise ~$1B yearly with a 1% acceptance rate
“I think we have about a billion dollars a year in, ah, your funding that comes into YC companies, and that's because, ah, the acceptance rate to get into YC is only one percent.”
Assertion Supported
Tan: Y Combinator receives 70,000 to 80,000 applications per year
“Yeah, I think it's close to 70, 80,000 at this point.”
Assertion Supported
Flexport participated in Paul Graham's final Y Combinator batch
“Yeah, really lucky that I, not only was the last batch, but he announced it mid-batch, so you didn't take it for granted that you were getting this time with Paul.”