why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mullenweg: Open source can power 80% to 85% of the web
“And I believe we have the ability to create a national monopoly of 80, 85% of the world's websites running on open source.”
Insight
Mullenweg: Successful platforms capture only 5% of ecosystem revenue
“And I kept finding this ratio that's like 20 to one everywhere in successful platforms, not in fake platforms, like it's not on the Facebook platform. Facebook made like 90% of the dollars in that ecosystem, but in others.”
Insight
Simple and easy are not the same in software development
“You've now just installed thousands of complex files when yes, it would be a little harder for you to just make your own HTML page from scratch, but notice that by definition, that's simpler. So simple is not always easy.”
Assertion Supported
Mullenweg: WooCommerce is doing well over $20B in GMV
“WooCommerce, which is, I think, one of the fastest growing e-commerce platforms in the world. It's essentially e-commerce built on top of WordPress, so you get the best of both. And that's doing well over twenty billion of GMV now and growing really quickly.”
Assertion Supported
Mullenweg: WordPress powers 38% of top 10 million sites
“I think we're 38% of the top ten million websites, which is more than 10 times the number two.”
Disclosure
Mullenweg: Automattic is migrating Tumblr's backend to WordPress
“And then Tumblr, which actually was an acquisition we did last year, which is a, you know, one of our blogging competitors. We were able to acquire it, and we're redoing it, switching it to actually be powered by WordPress on the back end.”