The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Karr: Orbis avoids investing in attention-seeking and high-lifestyle CEOs
“Generally not. I mean, it's a part of the mosaic of, you know, what will be the driver. I mean, it's an interesting thing with CEOs are like, what are the characteristics that allow one to be in that seat? And they're not always correlated with the skills that…”
Karr: Scaling into new positions is an error driven by regret aversion
“So when I'm initiating a position, I tend to scale into it. So let's say I want to take it to three percent of capital. I'll buy 50 basis points, you know, another 50 and I'll scale into it. Turns out that's wrong. The bias that I'm demonstrating the reversion…”
Karr: Deep research reveals when consensus bear cases form bull theses
“Some of my favorite investment situations are the bear case is the bull case. So there's this common bear narrative. And if you don't kind of do it on your own work, if I were bringing up this name and I was talking to someone, they would have told me all of t…”
Karr: Orbis invested about $1B into XPO after short report
“And we probably put a billion dollars into it on the back of that. And the stock was extremely dislocated.”
Karr: Orbis performance fees are refundable during periods of underperformance
“So we, all of our fees are performance-based, but they're refundable. So when we go through these periods that we're underperforming, we refunding fees back to them in the same ratio.”
Karr: Studies show emotional awareness improves investor performance
“There are studies that show that those people that are better at describing what emotions they're feeling end up demonstrating better investment performance.”
Karr: Orbis will not tilt portfolios based on US election outcomes
“And I'm not going to position and tilt the portfolio for a particular outcome. One, because I wouldn't be well served to do that. But two, to this point, like it's unknowable. And so I just want to be resilient as opposed to spend all this time obsessing on, i…”
Karr: Orbis invests with a four-to-five-year horizon
“So we consider ourselves long-term investors. We're trying to take a four to five year view to be infinite investors, right?”
Karr: Orbis held PG&E in 2018 before unexpected wildfire hit
“We had a position in a company called PG&E, which is a California utility.
Shane Parrish: the wildfires.
SPEAKER_05: Yeah.
Adam Carr: So we went into it after they had had their wildfires thinking that,
Legislation had passed, but there was this little loophol…”
Karr: Orbis runs a dedicated four-person team to track investor biases
“One of the things that we did a couple years ago which has been really interesting is we created this, what we call decision analytics initiative, right? So we have a standalone team for individuals. We went out and got third party software and we run all thes…”