The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

1statements match

1resolved → 0open claims → 1supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported

Simkin: Weather forecasters are exceptionally well-calibrated in probability assessments

“Weather forecasters are really good. I mean, just stupid good. And if you were to plot how often it rains when they say there's a 30% chance of rain, it's like 30% of the time. It's not 25 or 35.”

Todd Simkin Sep 7, 2021 ▶ 37:21 #119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions

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The Ledger

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