The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Parrish: Pavlov found any dog breaks under stress with zero exceptions
“One, he could predict which dogs would break down easily, and which would be harder to break. Two, the dogs that were hardest to break were also the hardest to fix afterward. Three, any dog could be broken with enough stress. There were no exceptions. Four, he…”
Shane Parrish Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 53:55 Charlie Munger: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment [Outliers]
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