The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Wolfe: SK Hynix will bypass export controls easier than Micron
“I think Micron is a US company which is going to be more constrained by restrictions that are put on export control, and I think SK being a Korean company is going to be able to skirt those in the same way that NVIDIA has with, you know, distribution to China …”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 10:25 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2172
Sinclair: Someone Born Today Will Live to Be 150 Years Old
“But I do think that somebody born today We'll live that long because the technology is just going so quickly.”
Dr. David Sinclair May 3, 2022 ▶ 1:26:06 David Sinclair: Reversing the Aging Process
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