Author Matt Ridley compares historical technological waves across centuries to predict the dominant innovation sector of the coming decades.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ridley: China's declining economic freedom means it won't lead global prosperity
“China has been relatively free economically, but relative, but very unfree politically in the last few decades. I think that's now changing. I don't think it's very free in either respect. And so I don't see it leading the world in prosperity for an awful lot …”
Opinion
Ridley: Nations shouldn't worry about IP theft if they stay smarter
“My view on the whole is that you shouldn't worry about it. You should, if necessary, sell the stuff to them, because if you can keep ahead, if you can Use your advantage to be smarter. There's no reason you can't just maintain your advantage indefinitely. You …”
Insight
Ridley: Technology evolves through Darwinian selection, not just intelligent design
“In that sense, they really, you know, the airplane and the boat really have evolved. It's not a metaphor. It's what's actually happening to them.”
Insight
Ridley: Government industrial subsidies reward political connections over merit
“Picking winners and saying, I want this technology to be developed by such and such a date has a pretty awful track record and is likely to end up by the losers picking the governments. In other words, you know, the wrong people end up getting the grants and t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ridley: Humanity will win battles against most pathogens through ingenuity
“Yes, I think on the whole, we will win our battles against most pathogens, because we have so much possibility of ingenuity now, of human ingenuity to help us defeat them.”
What-if
Ridley: Without modern communication tools, governments couldn't have imposed COVID lockdowns
“If we didn't have all these social contact tools, then maybe we'd never have locked down. You know, we just couldn't do it. In which case, of course, the epidemic would have been worse. But to some extent, as it were the existence of the video conferencing and…”