Mauboussin: In luck-driven domains, evaluation must focus on process over outcomes
Michael Mauboussin · #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi · Jan 23, 2018 · at 22:57
Michael Mauboussin, author and head of consilient research at Counterpoint Global, explains to Shane Parrish how to evaluate performance in probabilistic and complex environments.
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“If you are operating in this completely skilled, dominated domain, outcomes are all you really need to know about, right? And so to your point, if you're performing well or performing poorly, that's almost a pure reflection of your skill. And in those domains it's easy. But as you get into things that are more as you mentioned, you know, maybe luck-laden or biological, so they're going to be much messier, you do have to go back and default to understanding the process, and, you know, with some sort of faith that a good process will ultimately lead to good outcomes.”
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