Growth-rate thinkers model change while base-rate thinkers model continuity
Balaji Srinivasan · #78 Balaji Srinivasan: Exploring COVID-19 · Mar 13, 2020 · at 54:00
Balaji Srinivasan explains the cognitive differences between growth-rate and base-rate extrapolation during an interview about COVID-19 risk assessment.
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“Growth rate people model how the world can change. Base rate people think about how the world is basically going to stay the same. And so the growth rate people are often mathematical. They're used to exponential growth for things like iPhones or Facebook or Bitcoin. They're looking for large deviations. They're often investing money. They're quantitative, numerical, they're technical, they're scientific. Base rate people are, you know, and they're often correct in the default that, oh, things aren't going to change. They, I mean, an institution is almost by definition a base rate thing because it's kind of, it's stayed at STID, right? Right. But basically people are, you know, they're about the conventional wisdom.”
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