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Michael Mauboussin

Head of Consilient Research, Counterpoint Global · 2 appearances on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

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Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. He is known for his research on decision-making, capital allocation, skill versus luck, and analyzing competitive moats.

35statements → 7claims → 6claims resolved → 100%fully supported → 3.83/5average certainty → 1.89/5average debate potential → ≈4.0/5argument clarity, estimated → 8said about them ↓

6 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not checkable as stated how the 7 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

7 assertions · 2 opinions · 24 insights · 2 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 7 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 6 are resolved, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Michael argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: NBA outcomes rely on skill; hockey and baseball involve luck
“The NBA is the sport that's furthest from randomness, furthest from pure luck configuration, and sports like actually ice hockey and baseball are actually quite much closer to being random.”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 23, 2018 ▶ 7:43 #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Michael Mauboussin on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Michael Mauboussin said on the Knowledge Project that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Mauboussin: People struggle to update probability estimates by the proper magnitude
“It's extremely difficult, and even if I get you to move in the right direction, I often can't get you to move the appropriate amount, so on, so forth.”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 32:02 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Insight
Mauboussin: An innate drive for causality impairs human statistical thinking
“We're all, as humans, we're all about causality. By the way, that's one of the reasons we start, struggle so much with understanding statistical thinking.”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 37:51 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Kahneman Noise Study Found 40% to 60% Decision Variance
“And they first went to their managers and they said, Hey, you know how much variance do you expect in these outcomes? Right? Again, playing the same way, same software and so forth. And the manager said, you know, a priority, you know, five to 10% variance. So…”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 23, 2018 ▶ 14:31 #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi
Insight
Mauboussin: Writing and Speaking Forces Deeper Material Comprehension
“So I find myself often using things in my own research, and that is actually incredibly useful, because when I write about it, or I have to speak about it typically means I need to understand the material reasonably well.”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 6:09 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Insight
Mauboussin: Training System 1 Expertise Requires Structured Deliberate Practice and Feedback
“To really train your system, one, to be really, really good, I think it requires, you know, that structure, deliberate practice, and I think the essential element there is is feedback.”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 12:18 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Some investment firms teach employees poker to train probabilistic thinking
“And so there are some investment organizations, for instance, that teach their employees how to play poker, right? To think about probabilities, to think about pot odds, right?”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 17:45 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Insight
Mauboussin: Reversible Experiments Help Overcome Managerial Resistance to Change
“Another card to play in that is experimentation. Say, let's try it this way for, you know, this subset or for this period of time. And if it works out great, and if it doesn't work out, we'll revert to what we were doing before. So just, if that's not too cost…”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 20:03 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Insight
Mauboussin: Wisdom of crowds derives from complex adaptive systems models
“Things like the wisdom of crowds, all those ideas, they naturally flow from looking at the world through the lens of complex adaptive systems.”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 35:03 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Disclosure
Mauboussin: Most gifted books are by Pinker, Wilson, and Menand
“You know, usually the books that I give away are it's usually a little trio. C. Pinker's book, How the Mind Works. E.L. Wilson's book, Consilience. And the third book is The Metaphysical Club. So those tend to be the three books that, if you said to me, and I …”
Michael Mauboussin Jan 23, 2018 ▶ 51:15 #28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi
Disclosure
Mauboussin: Mental recall is significantly better with physical books than e-readers
“As for reading and I don't know if this is a generational thing, but I still prefer physical books to reading on the Kindle, so I might read on the Kindle on a plane or something, but usually I'll do shorter reads versus long reads, but mostly I like physical …”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 4:29 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut
Opinion
Mauboussin Recommends Mortimer Adler's 'How to Read a Book' Framework
“But most of the books, you know, the great book, how to read a book, you know, is, is what I would recommend most people do in talking about different levels of attention that you would Mortimer Adler, different levels of attention you might pay to different t…”
Michael Mauboussin Apr 28, 2015 ▶ 6:39 #1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut

The other half of the tape: Michael Mauboussin's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 8 times in 4 episodes on the Knowledge Project. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Bill Gurley 4Jason Zweig 2Josh Wolfe 1Brent Gilchrist 1

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
002142201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
012201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
002142201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 4 mentions in 1 episode
2019 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2015 2 mentions in 1 episode

Appearances (2)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
#28 Michael Mauboussin: A Decision Making Jedi Jan 23, 2018 1h 0m
#1 Michael Mauboussin: When To Trust Your Gut Apr 28, 2015 29m
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