why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Doronichev: Google Stadia failed due to a lack of organizational focus
“Google didn't have enough attention to focus on this project. It didn't have enough resources to dedicate to it. And as a result, it failed despite, you know, all the resources.”
Opinion
Massay: Google ranks third behind OpenAI and Anthropic in AI models
“Right now, I think Google is kind of on the lower, is probably number three next to Anthropic and OpenAI.”
Opinion
Toeman: Younger workers avoid workplace questions because they grew up Googling
“I think it's generational. My personal, this is now just me and I'm not an expert on these things, but my thesis is the generation that got raised with Google at their fingertips much like the ones with AI at their fingertips. Why would you ask a human a quest…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ahuja: Traditional enterprises must rely on Indian GCCs for AI talent
“One is it's so hard to get AI talent globally, specifically in countries like US. Everybody wants AI talent. Meta is hiring, and so is Google, and so is Microsoft, and they'll do anything and pay everything, anything to get people. So therefore, traditional en…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Yu: FreeWheel never lost a deal competing against Google
“We competed with Google, hide and hide competition, never lost a deal.”
Assertion Supported
Morgan: Larry Page and Sergey Brin Initially Booed Paid Search
“Bill Gross announced paid search at the TED conference. It was booed. People were like, oh, I, you know, people are going to pay for my time and my attention in search. No, that's horrible. Including Larry and Sergey saying, this is terrible. We'll never do th…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: AI is creating serious challengers to Google in search
“And again, thanks to AI I think there are serious contenders and challengers, challengers to Google coming up.”
Opinion
Lopez: The world is safer when commercial tech giants are US-based
“The world is safer, I think, when you have large commercial companies that are headquartered in the United States. So where do we want the next Google to be created? Well, we definitely don't want it to be Created an adversary who wanted to be created here, an…”
Insight
Soffer: Broad horizontal marketing tools cannot succeed across every vertical
“There are so many factors and variables into the rankings, and that's why the first thing I'll tell you is niche down. You just say, we're going to create the best marketing tool for every vertical, every platform. Good luck. It's not going to happen.”
Insight
Ranjan: Architect AI Products So Foundation Model Upgrades Are Tailwinds, Not Headwinds
“So one of the core design principles which we had in the company is every model development has to be a tailwind for us, not headwind. If tomorrow Google launches a new Gemini model or OpenAI launches a new GPT model or like, you know, something like deep secr…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hargrave: Organic Search Traffic Is Shrinking but Delivering Better-Qualified Leads
“The thrust of all of this is that organic traffic is shrinking for everybody. So there's less quantity. But of the people who do come to your site, there's more quality. So just think about less traffic to your website, but the people who do come are typically…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Johnson: Bureaucracy Kept Google From Launching AI Tech Before OpenAI
“Funny enough, Google had the technology OpenAI had long before OpenAI had it. So, but it was bureaucracy that stopped that technology from coming out.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emmons: Search algorithms will evolve to kill off AI-generated slop
“And I think that we're going to go back from it and the AI slop is eventually going to calm down and either become quality content or just turn off because It's going to stop influence on us. We're all trying to figure out how to essentially, you know, get mor…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Soffer: Intuition Robotics is building an entirely nonexistent desktop robot category
“Nobody out there is Googling, I need a desktop social robot for my grandma. Nobody. It's a not, it's a non-existing category. We're creating it.”
Assertion Supported
Meta and Google Are Launching Tech and Products Exclusively in India
“So no part of the world, some of those tools and tech and products exist, but Meta is introducing that into India and so is Google.”
Disclosure
Srinivasan: Needle.ai requires custom data tuning, not an out-of-the-box product
“Our search engine sort of doesn't work completely well out of the box. We need to work with you to tune for your data and for the kinds of information that you're seeking, right? It's not, I mean, and that's exactly the challenge that we have because people co…”
Insight
Srinivasan: Enterprise search is harder because users know what documents exist
“The challenge that we have here is as a domain, as an enterprise user, as a CXO, you know exactly what is out there in this vast ocean of data that, that needs to come back as an answer when I look for it, right? Because I know I wrote that document some, at s…”
Assertion Partly supported
Jain: IdeaScale ranks top-three globally on Google for innovation management searches
“If you search the word innovation management, innovation, best practice, anything related to innovation or creativity, we're a top three Google results alongside. It's usually Harvard business school, McKinsey, Wikipedia, and us in some combination in any lang…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
FirmPilot Condenses 12-Month Marketing Agency SEO Experiments Into 15 Minutes
“What we've learned how to do really well with our models is run hundreds and 100,000 of simulations, literally ranking forecasting. We'll create dummy content, dummy ads, and compare it to what's literally in the market, your competitors, before we just send y…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
FirmPilot AI Ranked Law Firm Number One on Google in Six Months
“Six months later, we moved him from the 17th page of Google, irrelevant for the very, very competitive search, Miami Uber accident lawyer. He now ranks number one organically”
Disclosure
Ranjan: Google built an internal precursor to Pinterest that failed
“Favorite failed idea, favorite of mine, which failed, but became useful, but not because of us is Pinterest. I was at Google. This was one of the problems which we were thinking about of how do people look at collection of things. It was a project which failed…”
Assertion Supported
Morgan: Google paid hundreds of millions for Idealab's paid search patents
“Google ended up paying hundreds of millions for our patents on paid search.”
Assertion Supported
Soffer: Google Evaluates Life and Money Businesses Differently in Search
“Google evaluates businesses that have to do with your life or your money differently than a bakery or a veterinarian or a landscaping business. The weights and everything are so different and personalized.”