The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Partly held up
BNEF's Sekine: Average battery prices will fall 6% to $133/kWh in 2024
“Our, like our expectation at BNF is that prices will drop this year. So drop about six percent. So we averaged last year, just as a pricing point, we averaged at about 139 dollars per kilowatt hour on a volume average basis. So that includes all segments that …”
Yayoi Sekine Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 5:20 Pricing and tech trends shaping the global battery storage market
Prediction Held up
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing overcapacity will worsen through 2025
“If we are to simply look at the overall capacity that's expected to come online based on company announcements between now and 2025, that factor that I mentioned three X of battery capacity relative to demand today or in 2023, that actually becomes worse over …”
Yayoi Sekine Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 11:10 Pricing and tech trends shaping the global battery storage market
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
BNEF: Mass commercialization of solid-state batteries expected post-2030
“Our view is in terms of mass commercialization, that's probably, like, around, like, post- twenty-thirty, with a lot of investment actually going into that now.”
Yayoi Sekine Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 28:27 Pricing and tech trends shaping the global battery storage market
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sekine: Gigawatt-hour scale battery projects will likely become standard by 2030
“I think the fully formed ones are probably around gigawatt hour scale projects. We see a couple of examples of those today, but I think expecting them to be the norm of how company, like a lot of large scale projects might go forward. I imagine that's going to…”
Yayoi Sekine Feb 8, 2024 ▶ 29:31 Pricing and tech trends shaping the global battery storage market
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