why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Partly held up
BNEF's Sekine: Average battery prices will fall 6% to $133/kWh in 2024
“Our, like our expectation at BNF is that prices will drop this year. So drop about six percent. So we averaged last year, just as a pricing point, we averaged at about 139 dollars per kilowatt hour on a volume average basis. So that includes all segments that …”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing capacity reached 3x demand in 2023
“When you have three X
Battery like manufacturing capacity relative to total demands in the global market, which is where we are where we were in 2023, you kind of expect there to be some shakeup because not every company is able to ramp up a gigawatt hour fact…”
Prediction Held up
Sekine: Global battery manufacturing overcapacity will worsen through 2025
“If we are to simply look at the overall capacity that's expected to come online based on company announcements between now and 2025, that factor that I mentioned three X of battery capacity relative to demand today or in 2023, that actually becomes worse over …”
Assertion Contradicted
Sekine: $100B+ committed to US EV and battery supply chains in 2023
“Even though last year we saw a record number of, like, commitments towards clean energy supply chains in general in the US,
Most of which were for EVs EVs and batteries, so about more than a hundred billion dollars committed towards EV and batteries supply cha…”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: Most seasonal energy storage investment is in hydrogen
“The very, very long, long duration energy storage, the stuff that we might call seasonal energy storage. I think the more, the activity that we see more more investment around that is actually around hydrogen and that, that economy.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
BNEF: Mass commercialization of solid-state batteries expected post-2030
“Our view is in terms of mass commercialization, that's probably, like, around, like, post- twenty-thirty, with a lot of investment actually going into that now.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Sekine: Gigawatt-hour scale battery projects will likely become standard by 2030
“I think the fully formed ones are probably around gigawatt hour scale projects. We see a couple of examples of those today, but I think expecting them to be the norm of how company, like a lot of large scale projects might go forward. I imagine that's going to…”
Assertion Partly supported
Sekine: Global battery cell capacity grew ~40% to 2.6 TWh in 2023
“In the end of twenty-twenty-three, we have about 2.6 terawatt hours of commission capacity confirmed globally. We haven't tallied out tallied up all the capacity just yet, but it's likely to be more than three terawatt hours in terms of total lithium-ion batte…”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: Battery racks comprise 50% to 60% of turnkey stationary storage costs
“In the stationary storage space the battery racks are the biggest portion of the storage system costs can range between 50 to 60% of a total turnkey energy storage system.”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: US accounted for ~30% of 2023 global battery deployments
“So in the case of the US, which is about 30% of the total market in terms of deployments in 2023 on a gigawatt hour terms.”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: China drove roughly 45% of global energy storage in 2023
“So it represents about 45% of the total global market in gigawatt hour terms. In gigawatt terms, it's actually higher. It's almost half the global market.”
Assertion Supported
Sekine: Over 20 Chinese provinces mandate storage on new renewables
“So essentially in China, about like more than 20, I want to say 26 provinces in China have mandates for if you want to build a new solar project or a new wind project, you need to attach batteries to it.”