The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
CDR market will overcome US policy retreat via international adoption
“I think we will. And I think we'll get past this current challenge with the US. Because the rest of the world is looking at it as an opportunity for them.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 29:03 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Disclosure
Captura's direct ocean capture system runs on intermittent or curtailed energy
“Direct air capture typically requires a continuous level of power. We've designed our system to work with very intermittent and even curtailed energy for the majority, if not potentially all, of our energy use.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 6:34 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Assertion Supported
Captura's carbon capture process adds zero new material to the ocean
“So our process adds nothing to the ocean. We do not put any new material into the ocean whatsoever. The only thing we do is take out The CO two.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 14:22 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Assertion Partly supported
Captura testing shows water outflow has no detrimental marine effect
“We grow marine life in our outflow at various concentrations to confirm that we are having no detrimental effect. We model how our Outflow plume of water rapidly disseminates into the wider ocean and validate that within a very small distance from the outflow,…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 15:12 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Captura logs hundreds of operational hours without hardware degradation
“We've got hundreds of hours of continuous operation with no degradation.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 23:56 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Captura targets 2028 for its first operational commercial plant
“So, we're targeting twenty-twenty-eight to be in operation with our first commercial plant.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 24:28 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Captura's first plant may blend project finance, equity, and partnerships
“It may end up being a combination of project finance and equity type finance, maybe a partnership.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 26:00 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Opinion
Tech giants back CDR to secure future low-cost capacity
“There are companies like Microsoft, Frontier, and others that are seeking to create a market and build a supplier base. I see those companies providing the leadership in the market. They're doing it for good reasons for themselves as well. Securing a first rig…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 27:45 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Insight
Policymakers will not regulate CDR until feasibility is proven independently
“I, I've always felt that no policy maker is going to establish a policy that's not feasible because then it just comes back to bite them. So it's on us as the CDR industry to demonstrate that we're feasible and cost effective.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 28:25 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Oldham: Captura built its ocean carbon removal pilot in 70 days
“The team had built the pilot, commissioned it, got it operating in just 70 days.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 3:48 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Captura solved membrane fouling using proprietary chemical backwashing
“We developed a backwashing mechanism. So we'd actually regularly wash the membranes using the chemicals that we produced in the process, and that eliminated the fouling problem.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 8:12 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Disclosure
Captura's 100-ton pilot scale was dictated by garage floor space
“Physical sizing of the scale up was decided by the physical area inside that roll up garage. We hired a wonderful pilot engineer from Caltech. And I remember the first time I went into that garage after she joined, she had marked out on the floor where all the…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 8:45 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Disclosure
Membrane contactor supply chain issues delayed Captura's pilot by months
“The technology that we were using at the time, membrane contactors, it was difficult to operate and the supply chain was challenging for us. So we actually went through two suppliers, which delayed everything there in setting up the barge and getting to the en…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 10:54 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Disclosure
Captura raised $47M in Series A financing
“So we raised what turned out to be eventually forty seven million dollars in our series A.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 17:23 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Disclosure
Captura's eight strategic corporate investors include Aramco and Maersk
“And we actually now have eight strategic partners who are investors. So we have a couple of energy companies in Equinor and Aramco. We have three renewable energy companies, NE, EDP, and National Grid. We have what we love to call our team Japan. Japan has a l…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 17:37 Captura's high-stakes gamble
What-if
Meeting Equinor safety standards would have delayed Captura's pilot a year
“Some of the technology that we were using did not conform to the safety standards that they correctly have at that facility. So we had a choice to either make sort of fundamental changes to the technologies supply chain to get to that safety level that was req…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 19:31 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Disclosure
Captura signed its first carbon removal offtake deal in March
“We signed our first offtake contract in March and are in negotiation with several others at the moment.”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 23:35 Captura's high-stakes gamble
Insight
First commercial plant is hardest startup hurdle due to perceived risk
“One of the hardest things, and one of the many hard things in a startup, is once you have your technology working at a level that you believe to be adequate, is taking that technology out and building your first commercial plant. Because the perception of risk…”
Steve Oldham Nov 19, 2025 ▶ 24:53 Captura's high-stakes gamble
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