The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Davis: Solar will make up 40% of US generating capacity by 2050
“According to our outlooks, by twenty-fifty, 40% of the generating capacity, just like electricity generating capacity in, in the U.S. Will be solar.”
Davis: Solar will basically be the energy industry in two decades
“Solar is not just sort of one of the fastest growing, most important renewable energy technologies. It's one of the fastest growing, most important energy technologies, period. Like it will be basically The energy industry in the next couple of decades. Like, …”
Davis: Global solar growth rates to slow, remaining flat in China
“But then, you know, this year and next year we're sort of hitting, we're kind of like hitting past that inflection point and growth rates are actually going to slow in many different markets. China being one of them. So growth's actually flat over the next sev…”
Davis: Grid capacity constraints are slowing solar growth in key markets
“And I would argue that in all three of those markets, you're seeing slowing growth because of grid capacity constraints.”
Davis: China will maintain solar manufacturing dominance despite global factory buildouts
“Even if all the different announcements, whether in China or in the rest of the world, come to fruition, the share that China makes up isn't really going to change that much. Like, maybe a couple percentage points as other Countries around the globe build out …”
Davis: Only 50 GW of 120 GW announced US capacity will materialize
“Again, like I said, we don't anticipate all of that. 120 gigawatts of module manufacturing is going to get built. We expect it'll be more like, you know, 50 or so over the next you know, four or five years.”
Davis: Chinese solar module prices will floor at 12-15 cents in 2024
“Well, in terms of pricing trends just for Chinese modules, we do expect some further declines throughout twenty-twenty-four. Depending on what module technology you're talking about modules can be, you know, 15 to 18 cents, and we expect that they might go dow…”
Davis: The IRA will boost US solar installations by 40%
“When the IRA was first passed in August of, you know, we modified our forecasts, and we anticipated that over the next five years, the IRA would increase installations in the U.S. By, like, 40%. Pretty, you know, pretty big impact from a very historic piece of…”
Davis: US solar-plus-storage attachment rates remain too low to transform VPPs
“But in my opinion, solar plus storage attachment rates in the U.S. Are, like, not high enough yet for batteries to really, like, be a potential game changer in VPPs.”
Davis: Low pandemic interest rates drove record US residential solar installations
“So I would actually argue that the pandemic, because the, because low interest rates have been such a big factor in fueling affordable loans for residential solar, the pandemic in, at least in the United States, actually helped drive more residential solar tha…”
Davis: China holds over 80% of solar module component manufacturing capacity
“China has over 80% of the manufacturing capacity for every component, important component, in a solar module.”
Davis: Solar module prices will start to rise slightly by 2025
“And so by, you know, 20, 25 or so, we do anticipate that the pricing will start to go up a little bit more. Not a whole lot. But basically 20, 24 should be the floor for some of those module prices.”
Davis: The US currently has no meaningful domestic solar cell manufacturing
“There's no real, there's no cell manufacturing in the U.S. To speak of.”
Davis: The United States solar market will grow 10% in 2024
“So in 2024, overall, we're forecasting that the U.S. Market is going to grow 10%.”
Davis: Solar manufacturing will shift predominantly to N-type modules by 2028
“So we're going to witness over the course of the next three, four years A pretty big shift from mostly P-type modules, which is just, you know, a cell technology that's mostly the older technology, to predominantly N-type modules, and particularly technologies…”
Davis: Midday power prices will consistently crater to negative as solar expands
“You know, more and more solar, the more and more solar that gets installed, the more midday solar prices are just going to crater and, you know, be consistently negative.”
Davis: Corporate and utility buyers drive the majority of US solar procurement
“The primary drivers of utility scale solar procurement, at least, are corporate buyers signing contracts and voluntary procurement on the part of utilities. That's where the majority of utility scale solar, or how the majority of utility scale solar is procure…”